Bradford v Bolton Tip - Back The Draw @ 27/103.70
Thursday 14th May, kick-off 20:00, live on Sky Sports, Agg 0-1
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I went for the draw with the 90 mins cover in the first leg on Saturday and, while a very close affair, Bolton nicked the 1-0 win. It was a match that closely resembled the Stevenage and Stockport game.
Bolton enjoyed all the possession, a slightly higher xG (1.21) and scored on 60 minutes - with Bradford creating little at 0.21 xG and zero shots on target.
Match odds - stick with draw again
I am going to stick to my guns here and go with the Draw outright again as Bradford held a superb home defensive record all season in shipping just 17 goals in their 23 matches at Valley Parade, and arguably Bolton away was where they threw their chance of going up automatically.
Wanderers were held 10 times on the road and only score 24 in 23, yet at home it was 46 in 23.
Bolton are unbeaten on each of their last five league visits to Bradford City, although they have drawn each of their last four (W1).
Armed with that stat, we go again with the draw, as Wanderers have never previously won both legs of a play-off semi-final tie, while they won just one of their nine away legs (D2 L6) - that was in their most recent at Barnsley in 2024 however (3-1).
Back Bradford v Bolton The Draw
Antoni the star man for the hosts
Antoni Sarcevic, so often chief creator and goal-getter for Bradford, is the key man here. He put in a fine performance in the face of the Bolton boos on Saturday but he did have one of the game's best chances when he fired over in the second-half.
With 11 goals this term and such a threat he's my man for Anytime Scorer. Out of his 11 goals netted this term, six have been first.
Back Antoni Sarcevic Anytime Scorer
Stockport v Stevenage Tip - Back Louie Barry Anytime Scorer @ 2/13.00
Click here for more Stockport v Stevenage match odds
Wednesday 13 May, 20:00, live on Sky Sports, Agg 1-0
Following the opening legs of the semi-finals, both Bolton and Stockport are 5/42.25 in the Promotion market. Stevenage are out to a massive 10/111.00 and have a mountain to climb.
Have they blown their chance? Well, on each of the last nine occasions that the away side has won the first leg of a League One play-off semi-final, that side has gone on to reach the final, with the last to fail to do so being Carlisle against Leeds United in 2007-08 (won first leg 2-1 away, lost second leg 2-0 at home).
Match odds - hosts strong favourites
Stockport's 94th minute winner on Saturday came in a game of few chances and little xG with the output for Stevenage a paltry 0.28 and Stockport at 0.68.
There were just 14 shots in the first leg between Stevenage (6) and Stockport (8). It was the fewest shots in any Stockport County match in League One this season, while only one Stevenage game saw fewer (versus Cardiff in December, which saw 13), and it indicates what to expect in the return leg.
Stevenage's away record throughout the regular season included 11 losses on the road - the worst of any of the play-off teams - and that has to put you off backing them here.
Stockport are 4/51.80, Stevenage 18/54.60 and the draw at 5/23.50.
First leg influencing the Under 2.5 Goals price
With the two poor xG figures from Saturday, and a fourth minute goal, I was surprised to see Over 2.5 Goals at 21/202.05 and Under 2.5 Goals at 3/41.75.
Stevo also yielded a poor goal return on the road with just 22 goals scored in 23 away matches this season. After the first leg, which saw both defences looking to control the tempo and cancel out chances, Revell is unlikely to risk too much in the first half.
Since losing their first ever Football League play-off home match 0-2 to Chesterfield in 1990, Stockport are unbeaten in their last seven semi-final home legs in the top four tiers (W4 D3).
Back Under 2.5 Goals
Back Barry to fire for Louie fans
Stockport's possession stats were way in advance of Stevenage's at nearly 61% from the first leg, so I am hoping Louie Barry gets a chance here.
His quality will be needed and, while yet to totally recapture the magic of old at Edgeley Park, he bagged a hat-trick in the home match versus Peterborough in the regular season at the end of April with killer finishes.
Barry to back for Anytime Scorer here at 2/13.00 is a price I like. He played 76 minutes in the first leg but that extra freshness will help.
Back Louie Barry Anytime Scorer