Bishop to make his move for a back of the draw at Fratton
Portsmouth v Plymouth Argyle
Saturday 3rd September, kick-off 15:00
A host of marquee games await in League One this weekend, none more so than second versus third as Portsmouth entertain Plymouth at Fratton Park. It certainly will be the atmosphere of the weekend. Games like this really ought to be on Sky.
An unsettling week in many ways for Pilgrims' boss Steven Schumacher, who has had to face the questions of links with the vacant Huddersfield job. It's a byproduct of doing well, but Plymouth lost Ryan Lowe to Preston last year, I hope history doesn't repeat itself, and Schumacher himself couldn't have been more emphatic in shutting down any talk of an exit.
Portsmouth will be a tough nut to crack for this, as according to Opta they are unbeaten in each of their last 14 league games at Fratton Park (W11 D3), only Liverpool have a longer such streak amongst current sides in England's top four tiers (26 games). They fully justify their price at a shade of odds-on at 1.9620/21. Their impressive home record of 10 points from four games will keep them in the hunt for the title.
Plymouth have won twice on the road this term (with two losses), but they produced the comeback of all comebacks at Derby at the start of the month; losing 2-0 before a rousing effort to win 2-3.
Six wins in League One on the spin makes it tempting to back the hosts for this, especially as the one big game they have faced this term at home was the 2-1 success against Peterborough. On-loan Spurs man Dane Scarlett got a brace in that game and he is 5/1 on the Sportsbook for First Goalscorer. His strike partner Colby Bishop now has six in nine, and scored the late second at Burton on Tuesday.
Nineteen-year-old Scarlett is a natural finisher and has earned rave reviews.
Pompey lacked a bit of their tempo against Burton on Tuesday night, but they were very good against Posh and that win extended their unbeaten record at Fratton to 14 matches in all competitions dating back to February 8th.
Schumacher's 19 wins, five draws and 10 defeats since he took over is a good record. They have scored 49 goals, conceded 35 and kept 18 clean sheets, and the clean sheet will face the ultimate test this weekend against a good pairing that has taken Pompey to new levels.
Plymouth do look overpriced for this, but the draw is fairly tempting to play at 3.613/5, as there isn't an awful lot between the sides. If you are using the Sportsbook Bet Builder for a game multiple, Bishop Anytime Goalscorer gives a decent double of 9/1.
KEY OPTA STAT: Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last five home league games against Plymouth (W2 D3) since a 1-2 reverse in April 2016.
Goals might be difficult to find in the Karl Robinson derby
Oxford United v MK Dons
Saturday 3rd September, kick-off 15:00
I sat through Silkeborg against West Ham on Thursday, as a Hammers fan I had little choice. Silkeborg reminded me of two things; Edward Fox in Day Of The Jackal played a Danish schoolteacher, in one of his many guises, and he was from Silkeborg, while the team's meaningless passing from side to side reminded me of both Oxford and MK Dons.
These two love possession, although both are struggling to score and gain wins. MK have six goals in eight, Oxford have seven, and both are in places in League One they would rather not be.
Dons boss Liam Manning was hailed as the next best thing, but he's without Scott Twine and Troy Parrott this term and this is nervous "second album" time for Manning with his team in the bottom three.
Save for the 0-4 win at Morecambe, MK have drawn three blanks from four on the road and their system is clearly not suited to the play of Will Grigg up front. He needs balls into the six-yard area for him to finish with his dead-eye, but aerial crosses and long balls have basically nullified his threat.
In big games they haven't been nearly as dominant on the ball either. At Cambridge, they did have 66% of the play but barely had a shot on target, while Tuesday evening's 0-2 home loss to Bolton saw them create zero shots on target.
We have to use that to our advantage here and play on few goals. One market I like is the Both To Score 'No' bet, which was trading at a decent 2.01/1 on Friday morning. While the Over 2.5 Goals is a bit tight, so the 1.5 is for me at 3.412/5.
The Under 2.5 Goals and BTTS 'No' double on the Sportsbook looks very enticing at around 8/1 using the Bet Builder.
KEY OPTA STAT: MK Dons have won just one of nine previous Football League meetings with Oxford United, a 1-0 win in December 2019 under Russell Martin.
Moore and McKenna to cancel each other out
Sheffield Wednesday v Ipswich Town
Saturday 3rd September, kick-off 15:00
League One really has delivered with the fixtures this weekend, and two of the title pretenders go head-to-head at Hillsborough on Saturday and Ipswich put their 100% away record on the line at big spending Wednesday.
A record of F8 A1 on the road and maximum points against Forest Green, Burton, Shrewsbury and Accrington will make Darren Moore wary, and I tend to think Moore can go a bit negative in the big games.
Ipswich have lost both of their last two league visits to Sheffield Wednesday, this after having gone unbeaten in their previous nine such trips beforehand (W4 D5). The Tractor Boys have never lost three straight league trips to the Owls, but they are different side this year under progressive coach Kieran McKenna.
Dennis Adeniran and big centre-half Ben Heneghan have been on the injured list and Adeniran is a real dynamic force in the midfield but they have real depth to their squad and summer signing Michael Smith finally got off the mark in an Owls shirt on Tuesday in the 0-3 win at Morecambe. Moore adopted a new system, showing there are several ways to skin a cat.
He partnered Lee Gregory up front, and the partnership worked well and will certainly cause defences a lot of problems, especially with the outlet of the long ball.
The Owls lost their most recent fixture at Hillsborough to Barnsley, and at 2.8815/8, they are narrow outsiders against Ipswich's 2.789/5. When markets are as tight as that, I prefer to play on the draw at 3.412/5, and in an anticipated tight first-half, there is always the option to lay back your stake in-running.
Ipswich have won each of their last four league games on the road, keeping three clean sheets in the process; they have only won five away league games in a row twice entire Football League history, and that clean sheet record is enough for me to keep the stalemate onside.
KEY OPTA STAT: Sheffield Wednesday have won three of their last four league games against Ipswich (D1), more than they had in their previous 18 league meetings beforehand (W2 D8 L8).
Recommended bets
Back The Draw @ 3.613/5 Portsmouth v Plymouth
Back Under 1.5 Goals @ 3.55/2 Oxford v MK Dons
Football... Only Bettor - Listen here
Alan Dudman's League One P & L
2022-23: -5.27
*advised to a 0.5pt stake