League One Betting Tips: More misery in store for Brewers this weekend

Dons struggles to continue at Town

Ipswich Town v MK Dons
Saturday 13th August, kick-off 15:00

Two games into the League One season, and MK Dons are already out to 26.025/1 in the Winner market for an ante-post bet. There have been some big swingers in the prices considering it's so early, but the Dons are stuck on zero points. Not the ideal start.

Both defeats at 1-0 told the same story against Cambridge and Sheffield Wednesday; with lots of possession but very little up front. The stark realisation of no Scott Twine nor Troy Parrott is starting to hit home.

It's not a shock the Under 2.5 Goals for this trades at 1.84/5, although I thought it might have been a little shorter. The 1.5 is priced at 3.1511/5 to go under.

Ipswich are four points from their two games and gained their first win of the season at newly promoted Forest Green last weekend. Sam Morsy capped a fine individual display with his goal, and Town bossed the game against FGR and their counter press.

Morsy for Anytime Scorer and an Ipswich win pays around 9.08/1 using the Sportsbook Betbuilder, which is possible judged on the fact that Town are the best xG side in the division currently with a 2.56 rating. Opta also state that the Tractor Boys have had the most shots (40) and faced the fewest shots (14) in League One so far this season.

I am quite tempted to play the Under 1.5 at 3.1511/5, as the Dons are still taking a while to settle down in terms of their player recruitment to the club, and it clearly hasn't gelled yet. Their head coach Liam Manning wants them to impose their own style on games, but it hasn't worked out yet and at 5.04/1, the market has completely dismissed them.

Town's home form was good in the second-half of last term and should win this, and we can just about get away with a 1.855/6 winning selection.

KEY OPTA STAT: Ipswich Town are yet to lose a league match against MK Dons (P7 W3 D4 L0), the most they've faced an opponent in the Football League without ever losing to them.

Matt and Rovers look dangerous for Imps

Lincoln City v Forest Green Rovers
Saturday 13th August, kick-off 15:00

Life under new Lincoln boss Mark Kennedy has started with two points and two low-scoring draws at 0-0 and 1-1, and he still is on the lookout for at least two signings to fit into his system that could be relying on a high-pressing game.

The Imps have signed 24-year-old winger Jordon Garrick from Swansea City on a season-long loan move, although he might be short of match minutes in terms of starting Saturday.

The general consensus is of Lincoln this year is that they have improved and look a lot fitter, but chances are few and far between for them. They failed to have a single shot on target in the opening 45 minutes against Pompey, and they have the worst xG in League One at the moment on 0.56.

Forest Green have scored in both of their games so far, and collected a 1-2 opening day success at Bristol Rovers. Jammille Matt will be hard to handle for a lot of teams in League One this term and he did net 20 last term in 49 appearances.

Rovers look overpriced here considering the hosts and their lack of a goal, and the 2.942/1 outright win gives us the chance to play on the Draw No Bet option at a healthy 2.0621/20.

Matt and Forest Green to win pays 4.3100/30 using the Sportsbook Betbuilder, and the visitors were excellent on the road last term when winning League Two - as they lost just three times all season.

KEY OPTA STAT: Since Forest Green joined the EFL in 2017, they have only lost more league meetings with Swindon Town (five) than to Lincoln City (four).

Hard to see Jimmy's Burton getting anything at the Wham

Accrington Stanley v Burton Albion
Saturday 13th August, kick-off 15:00

Accrington Stanley have only lost one of their last nine home league games against Burton Albion (W4 D4), and are unbeaten in their last five (W2 D3) since a 0-1 defeat in August 2013, and with that Opta stat in mind, they look a sound bet at bang-on Evens for Saturday.

John Coleman's side are often overlooked in the betting compared to the big guns - who can go off at 1.84/5 in the betting. Stanley were usually at around 2.35/4 for home matches last term, so perhaps the layers are now treading more carefully?

Four points from their two games has set them up for another top-half finish, and they once again hit the Over 2.5 Goals target with their opening day 2-2 v Charlton at the Wham. They scored 41 goals last season at home - which was more than Champions Wigan, although their Achilles' is conceding, as they shipped 33 at the other end.

Burton Albion have trailed for 169 minutes in League One this season, the most of any side; indeed, only one other side has trailed for 100+ minutes (MK Dons, 141), and it's not looking particularly good at the moment with two thumping losses 3-0 and 4-0 so far.

Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink was raging at the decision to send Conor Shaughnessy off in the first minute against the Gas last week, although Joey Barton rubbed salt into the wounds by criticising their style of play and long ball tactics.

I like the Over 2.5 again, as eight of Accy's last nine games in the previous campaign hit the target, and Accrington's Sean McConville has created the most chances in League One so far this season (9); he also created the most chances in the division last season (161). That looks the wiser bet considering playing on the BTTS, you are relying on a Burton team that has failed to score a single goal so far.

KEY OPTA STAT: Accrington Stanley have only lost one of their last nine home league games against Burton Albion (W4 D4), and are unbeaten in their last five (W2 D3) since a 0-1 defeat in August 2013.