League One Betting: Burton injuries point to backing Bolton

Stanley look strong favourites to maintain home form

Accrington Stanley v Shrewsbury Town
Saturday 4th September, kick-off 3pm

Shrewsbury finally got on the points board last weekend with a hard fought 2-1 win against Gilingham thanks to young Tom Bloxham's goal, the 17-year-old's first of the season and a crucial one to ease the pressure after a poor start. Sam Cosgrove the Birmingham loanee also nabbed his first in Salop colours.

Cotterill wants to blood youth, but he might not have any other options as the squad looks fairly light, and the transfer deadline day proved to be fruitless as he missed out on at least three targets in positions at the back and up front. Although the timing of playing in the Papa John's Trophy was somewhat ludicrous before the 11pm deadline on the same day.

It's not a huge shock the Shrews are chalked up at 3.8514/5 for this, and Accrington look a pretty sound bet at 2.1211/10 to take the honours as the numbers are simple - Shrewsbury have lost both away thus far, the Reds have won both at home.

Accrington's work-rate and desire are hallmarks of a John Coleman team and they had that in abundance when they recorded their first clean sheet of the season in the 2-0 win against Doncaster, despite missing Cameron Burgess who left for Ipswich on a larger contract. The Reds strengthened their ranks with box-to-box midfielder Ethan Hamilton, though, and 18-year-old West Brom forward Jovan Malcolm joined too.

Colby Bishop and Dion Charles are potentially the best two forwards in the division according to their manager, and Accrington were aware of interest from Peterborough in the former, a club with a real talent for unearthing forwards and selling them on, but they've done well to keep him and add to the ranks - which is in stark contrast to Shrewsbury.

Charles will be absent due to an international call-up and is one of four ruled out for the hosts including John O'Sullivan. Malcolm could come in for his first start.

Despite both league meetings between the two last season ending in draws, I only see the hosts winning this and they look the best bet of the weekend at just over evens. If you are looking for a Correct Score bet on the Sportsbook, I would recommend the 1-0 and 2-0 at 11/2 and 8/1.

KEY OPTA STAT: Both league meetings between Accrington and Shrewsbury ended as draws last season, as many as in their previous 17 matches in the EFL

Robins might be able to stand firm against Dons

Cheltenham Town v MK Dons
Saturday 4th September, kick-off 15:00

The MK Dons were the saving grace for the column last weekend with a solid 2-0 win against Accrington and a performance worthy of the Royal Shakespeare Company according to the Stanley boss, who was most aggrieved at the theatrics of the MK players. He (John Coleman) admitted they were beaten by the better team, a good side he called them, but he didn't enjoy the rolling around and time-wasting. Two qualities that often pop up in Twelfth Night - in particular the front two of Viola and Sir Toby Belch.

It was an important win in so many ways for the Buckinghamshire club, who finally kept a clean sheet (their first of the season), and in the process they cut out their age-old problem of conceding a goal early. Hiram Boateng was singled out for praise again by Liam Manning coming on as a substitute, but overall it was a performance that lacked their usual passing sparkle. Winning ugly I think they call it.

However, the shutout means we can finally consider the Dons to keep it tight at the back, and the Win To Nil price might be considered this weekend if the defence led by Dean Lewington (pictured below) can replicate the performance. There was £28 to be taken on Thursday night at 4.3100/30, which is massive.

Manning's team usually score, and have found the back of the net in every game so far, scoring 31222, but they have been held on the road to entertaining, high-scoring draws in both matches against Bolton and Ipswich, so they are still seeking their first win on the road.

Saturday might not be such a goal-fest, as Troy Parrott is away on international duty and Mo Eisa, who scored last weekend, picked up an injury on 54 minutes and had to be taken off. Watch the team news to see if the striker makes it, and that could tempt me to back the draw at the biggest price.

Each of MK Dons' last three away league games has finished as all square. The Dons had drawn just two of their previous 21 on the road in league competition prior to this, and with the possibility of a depleted front line, Cheltenham might bank up again as they did against Burton last Friday. The visitors are an Over 2.5 side, but the Sportsbook has the Under 2.5 price as the shorter of the two at 8/11.

KEY OPTA STAT: Cheltenham Town have won six of their last eight home league games (D1 L1), scoring in every game and keeping four clean sheets in the process.

Trotters faithful to roar on home win

Bolton Wanderers v Burton Albion
Monday 6th September, kick-off 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

Monday's live Sky game offers us the chance to see newly-promoted Bolton for the first time, while Burton are back on the TV a week on from their 1-1 at home to Cheltenham last week. And eight or nine days can make a big difference in betting.

Albion were strong favourites last Friday, moving on to Monday, they are the outsiders of the two at 3.3512/5, with the Trotters at 2.35/4.

It's a difficult game to assess as Opta Stats highlight the good record of Burton against Wanderers - winning all three of their away games in all competitions. If you take out the flat performance against Cheltenham, they'd look a good price as they won their first three matches with just one goal conceded - that came in the 2-1 success against Ipswich, but the wheels have slightly come off following the three-out-of-three start.

The injuries are stacking up for Jimmy Flloyd Hasselbaink however, and I thought they could get away with it in my preview last week. The Dutchman lost Michael Mancienne again with a hamstring early in that match, which took the tally to 10 players ruled out already in the early throes of the campaign. Hasselbaink has been without three forwards too, so he was lucky to get the highly-rated Daniel Jebbison on loan from Sheffield United. Three other players came in on transfer deadline day.

Burton last term were hard to break down, however the hunter became the hunted as they struggled to do anything in the final third against Cheltenham last Friday.

Bolton had a similar problem against Cambridge recently, who got their early goal and set up camped in their own half not to concede. Boss Ian Evatt bemoaned a lack of quality in the final third, mostly the crossing from out wide, but at least they have a goalscorer in Eoin Doyle - who hit 19 last term in the third tier and already has two in five this term. He is priced at 11/4 First Goalscorer and 11/10 Anytime Goalscorer on the Sportsbook, and that's no surprise as he is a natural finisher.

Out of the two, Bolton are known as being more free-scoring and more attacking, and that's been backed up in their two home matches at the UniBol so far with a 3-3 against the MK Dons and a 2-1 win over Oxford. The former was a manic game in which neither side really had control. Josh Sheehan scored in that, but he featured for Wales as a late call-up against Finland recently and will be a real loss.

Bolton themselves have had a couple of injuries, but I would be staggered if they couldn't score a goal here with Burton's increasing injury list so the 2.35/4 price makes a bit of sense. It could be a similar scenario to the Cambridge match in which they completely dominated possession against the U's who only had 26% of the ball. Bolton also had 16,000 fans against the Dons, so Monday should be a super atmosphere. If we get anything like the entertainment of that 3-3, backers of the Over 2.5 Goals will get rewarded with the 1.9420/21 price.

Backing the host to win and the Under 2.5 on the Betbuilder pays 4.37, throwing in Doyle to Score At Anytime gives a treble at 9.25.

KEY OPTA STAT: Having won their first three league games this season, Burton have failed to win either of their last two in League One (D1 L1).

*Click here to read Ian Lamont's League Two betting previews