EFL League One & League Two Tips: Warne can lift us up for Saturday 16/1 treble

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Derby boss Paul Warne feels the League One title race is wide open this term

Alan Dudman landed two single wins in the FA Cup last weekend including Eastleigh's upset, and he returns on EFL duty for Saturday...

  • Blackpool -2 can boost the weekend acca

  • Derby going strong under Warne

  • Alan Dudman has weekend 16/117.00 and 9/110.00 trebles


League One

Leg 1: Blackpool v Carlisle, Saturday 15:00: Back Blackpool -2

Last weekend's FA Cup 20/1 treble almost came off with Eastleigh winning at 13/53.60 and Wrexham covering the handicap in the nick of time for an 11/43.75 win, but Leyton Orient's failure to score, and the shortest price of the three at 8/151.53 failed to land the acca.

However, I do like that -2 bet and Blackpool have a good chance of covering that with Saturday's fixture against Carlisle.

The Tangerines are unbeaten in their last seven home league games against Carlisle United (W6 D1), scoring 2+ goals in all of their last five - 12 goals in five matches, an average of 2.4 goals per game and have scored 22 times at home this term.

Indeed, they are scoring plenty of goals at the moment and usually dominate possession, so with Carlisle netting only seven times on the road, this looks a good opportunity to include a 7/24.50 price to boost the treble.

Carlisle have lost their last three away games in League One and could lose four in a row on their travels in the league for the first time since October 2021 in League Two.

KEY OPTA STAT: Blackpool's CJ Hamilton has created 34 chances in open play this season in League One, the most of any player in the division.

Back Blackpool -2 @ 7/24.50

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Leg 2: Leyton Orient v Derby County, Saturday 15:00: Back Derby

This will be Derby County's first league visit to Leyton Orient since May 1985, a 2-2 draw in the third tier, and Derby are clicking into gear at the right time with four successive wins.

Paul Warne's teams can often go on runs, and we saw that plenty of times in this division when he was in charge of Rotherham.

The Os are on a four-match league unbeaten streak at home against Derby (W2 D2) and have lost just one of their last nine against the Rams at home (W6 D2 L1), but I get the feeling they've lost a little of their attacking spark of late.

Warne said recently of the division: "I'm more than respectful of the league but I think the best teams aren't as good as they've been in recent years and I include us as one of them," and that probably goes some way to explaining some of the up and down results.

The price of 21/202.05 is acceptable for the Rams and you can back them in the 90 minutes market at Evens.

KEY OPTA STAT: Leyton Orient pair Idris El Mizouni (22 shots) and Tom James (21 shots) have attempted the most of shots of any players yet to score a goal in League One this season.

Back Derby to win @ 21/202.05

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Leg 3: Peterborough v Oxford, Saturday 15:00: Back Peterborough

Peterborough are unbeaten in their last five league matches against Oxford (W3 D2), their longest unbeaten run against the U's since a run of seven between 1976 and 1993 and they deserve to be odds-on for Saturday.

The prices may have been different if Liam Manning had still been in charge of the U's, but Darren Ferguson's team have been superb at London Road this season with an excellent home defensive record of just seven conceded.

Peterborough's Ronnie Edwards, a player destined for the Premier League if ever there as one, has the best passing accuracy of any player to have started at least 10 games in League One this season (91.4%).

Oxford have failed to score in their previous two away games, and Posh have excellent xG metric numbers with 1.77 for and just 1.06 against.

KEY OPTA STAT: Oxford United are looking to avoid failing to score in three consecutive league games for the first time since March of this year.

Back Peterborough to win @ 17/201.85

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Back the L1 treble @ 16/117.00

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League Two

Leg 1: Barrow v Gillingham, Saturday 15:00: Back Barrow

Barrow somewhat let the side down last weekend in the FA Cup with a surprising exit at the hands of Maidstone - a game where they went 1-0 up too on the road.

However, one swallow doesn't make a summer, and perhaps Barrow are of the mindset to fully focus on the promotion charge away from any cup distractions.

Their home form has been impeccable this term with five wins and four draws (0 losses) and just five conceded. To still be competing with the likes of Wrexham, Stockport and Notts County is far exceeding all expectations.

Barrow's home xG against of 1.06 should be enough here against a Gillingham team that have lost their previous two on the road at Tranmere and Wrexham - and they conceded three at Tranmere. The hosts make obvious appeal here in the win to nil options or to cover -1, but the home price is fair enough.

KEY OPTA STAT: Barrow are unbeaten in their last 10 League Two matches (W6 D4), the longest current unbeaten streak in the division. The Bluebirds have won each of their last five, keeping three clean sheets in the process.

Back Barrow to win @ 21/202.05

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Leg 2: AFC Wimbledon v Swindon, Saturday 15:00: Back AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon have won two of their last three League Two matches (L1), although they did lose last time out - a 0-1 defeat to Gillingham, and they thrashed Ramsgate on Monday in a very one-sided affair at the Cherry Red Records Stadium.

Ali Al-Hamadi was on the scoresheet again with two goals in the 5-0 Monday thrashing, and that's taken his tally to 12 in 25 for the season - and remember he bagged a brace against Notts County.

Swindon have only lost on one of their four league trips to AFC Wimbledon (W1 D2), and after winning 5-1 on their last visit they are looking to record consecutive away wins against the Wombles in the league for the very first time, but they are streaky and have a habit of conceding goals - with 24 shipped in on the road.

KEY OPTA STAT: After losing four consecutive matches between October and November, Swindon are since unbeaten in their last three matches (W2 D1), winning each of their last two.

Back AFC Wimbledon to win @ 9/101.90

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Leg 3: Notts County v Walsall, Saturday 15:00: Back Notts County HT/FT

It wouldn't be a weekend acca without Notts County, although the defence are probably hanging their heads in shame at the three goals conceded in last Friday's FA Cup 2-3 defeat to Shrewsbury.

Comical didn't do it justice, but backers of the BTTS had no worries at all as County did what they do best - score.

The extra day off is a big advantage here, and with Walsall holding one of the worst away defences in the division (conceded 23 on the road), this could be a game for County to pile on the pressure with their attacking talent.

County have won nine of their last 11 home matches in League Two, despite conceding in 10 of those last 11 games, the only exception being a 3-0 win v Newport County, and I expect Macauley Langstaff to fire again with his 15 in 23 this term - although he was on the bench for the Shrewsbury defeat.

KEY OPTA STAT: Walsall have failed to win any of their last four away league matches (D1 L3), conceding 2+ goals in all four of those matches.

Back Notts County HT/FT @ 7/52.40

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Back the L2 treble @ 9/110.00 here

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*Click here for more football betting previews ahead of this weekend


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Recommended bets

You can back Alan's L1 treble @ 16/117.00

You can back Alan's L2 treble @ 9/110.00

Alan Dudman's P and L 2023-24

Multiples: +21.00pts

Alan Dudman

Alan is a long term member of the Betting.Betfair team and has been a broadcaster and writer for over 20 years.

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