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Posh can win on the road at 4/51.80
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Stockport a good price to cover the -2 handicap
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Alan Dudman has weekend 7/24.50 and 14/115.00 accas
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League One
Leg 1: Stevenage v Exeter, Saturday 15:00: Back Stevenage
Stevenage have forced 192 high turnovers this season, 41 more than any other team in in League One (Reading, 151) according to Opta, which tells you something about how well they are doing this season under the wily old fox Steve Evans.
They continue to exceed all expectations and the fact they are third in League One with 39 points (level with Bolton) leaves them perfectly poised going into Christmas to make an unlikely play-off or promotion charge.
The Borough last tasted defeat back in October and their fine home form of just one defeat and just nine conceded at the Lamex makes them fairly sound 1/21.50 shots this weekend.
Stevenage's home xG against of just 1.06, and while Exeter are unbeaten in their last four away trips to Stevenage (W2 D2), winning two of their last three (D1), the hosts should find this easier compared to some of their recent fixtures.
KEY OPTA STAT: Exeter City have lost each of their last five League One away matches, last having a longer losing run on the road in April 2012 (run of nine).
Leg 2: Cheltenham Town v Leyton Orient, Saturday 15:00: Back Under 2.5 Goals
Leyton Orient have won just one of their last seven Football League visits to Cheltenham (D2 L4), a 1-0 victory in April 2009, and they are in a bad trot at the moment with their last League One victory back on October 14th.
Goals are hard to come by too for Richie Wellens' side, with just two in their last five and they were torn apart by Derby at Brisbane Road last weekend with a heavy 0-3 home loss.
The Robins have scored just five at Whaddon Road all season and have recorded just 1.16 at home on the xG metric. I doubt this will entertaining and with Orient needing very much to avoid defeat, I wouldn't be surprised if this ended 0-0.
KEY OPTA STAT: Leyton Orient have failed to win any of their last eight league matches (D5 L3), their longest winless run since March 2022 (run of 15).
Leg 3: Fleetwood Town v Peterborough United, Saturday 15:00: Back Peterborough
Peterborough are playing ever so well at the moment and produced a bit of a showcase victory last Saturday when slamming promotion rivals Oxford 3-0.
The goals are flowing again as they have put four past Burton recently and 5-0 past their fierce local rivals Cambridge.
They've hit their sweet spot again and have scored more goals (40), had more shots (330), more shots on target (118) and accumulated more xG (39.12) than any other team in League One this season. A price of 4/51.80 in a field of shorties this weekend does appeal.
KEY OPTA STAT: Fleetwood Town lost just one of their last nine home league matches last season (W5 D3), but this season they have lost six of their first nine matches at Highbury Stadium (W2 D1).
League Two
Leg 1: Harrogate Town v Notts County, Saturday 15:00: Back BTTS
Notts County's keystone cops defending could cost them dear this season and they've not conceded 38 goals this term - in the process they've dropped out of the top three.
Goals will never be a problem for the Magpies, while Harrogate have been involved in six BTTS games since October 14th. Indeed, Notts County are the joint highest scorers in League Two this season with 43 goals - it's their most after 21 games in the top four tiers since 2009-10 (also 43 goals in League Two). Luke Williams' side have only failed to find the back of the net in two of their last 18 league matches.
While I have missed out on County recently with the HT/FT angle, they have conceded more on the road than they have scored, and Harrogate will sense they can take advantage of any sort of defensive mishap from the visitors - and let's face it, there have been plenty of late.
Backing the BTTS here at 8/151.53 looks the play.
KEY OPTA STAT: Harrogate Town have the joint-fewest home wins in League Two this season with two and have failed to win any of their last six at The EnviroVent Stadium (D2 L4).
Leg 2: Crewe v Accrington Stanley, Saturday 15:00: Back Crewe to win
Crewe Alexandra have won six of their last seven home matches (L1), keeping a clean sheet in three of their last four home victories. Their only defeat during came against Stockport County in October (0-2). and that stat should see them justify their 6/42.50 price on Saturday.
With that sole home defeat this term, their record on home soil stands up with the best of them and they produced a massive win last month to beat Notts County 1-0 with a 90th minute winner. Although not many would have predicted an Under 2.5 game between the pair.
Since winning four consecutive matches through October, Accrington Stanley have since won just one of their last six (D1 L4), failing to score in three of those matches.
KEY OPTA STAT: Accrington Stanley have won on three of their last four trips to Crewe (L1), keeping a clean sheet in all three of those victories.
Leg 3: Stockport County v Sutton United, Saturday 15:00: Back Stockport -2
The column has enjoyed some recent success with backing the -2 bet of late. Blackpool delivered last weekend and Wrexham hit three in the FA Cup and covered the -2 at a decent price, and we go again for Stockport at 11/43.75.
The League Two leaders have scored 20 and conceded just seven, which looks ominous for Sutton, in a top versus bottom clash and Sutton have scored 10 and conceded 25.
The hosts come into this match on 43 points from 21 matches, the most points they've ever picked up at this stage of a season across the Football League. When adjusting for three points for a win across all seasons, they last had this many back in 1966-67 (48).
KEY OPTA STAT: Sutton United lost 3-0 on their only previous EFL visit to Stockport (October 2022).
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Alan Dudman's P and L 2023-24
Multiples: +36.00pts