Carabao Cup Fourth Round Tipsheet: Back goals galore at the Etihad and Villa to be taken to penalties

Bradford v Peterborough Tip - Back Bantams to progress

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Tuesday 19:45 kick-off
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Bradford are 8/111.73 home favourites against fellow League One side Peterborough, with Posh 18/54.60 as they sit in the final relegation spot while the hosts are riding high in third. The Bantams had been top of the table but four draws in five has seen their title challenge stutter of late.

Bradford won 2-0 in the league fixture at Valley Parade back in August and are unbeaten in 11, but with three of their recent four draws being 0-0 it's clear finding the net has become an issue. That shouldn't be a problem against a team with just one away clean sheet this season though, and with possible changes that should also affect the hosts' own rearguard back both teams to find the net.

Fleetwood v Arsenal Tip - Mighty Max to strike as Gunners visit Highbury

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Tuesday 20:00 kick-off
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A great draw for Arsenal, in particular as they get to play at Highbury again - Fleetwood Town's version - as such big favourites that even 1/121.08 doesn't feel short enough. Mikel Arteta will make wholesale changes with a trip to Liverpool coming up but the side languishing 18th in League Two still shouldn't provide too many problems as 20/121.00 longshots.

Fleetwood have made it to the fourth round of the competition for the first time ever without conceding a goal, and they've lost just once in 10 at home this season, but Max Dowman is set to start again for a Gunners side plenty strong enough to do the job. We'll back the young star to score again, at 5/42.25, along with a comfortabe Arsenal win but include the possibility of a home consolation in among a glut of goals.

Man City v Brighton Tip - Back more goals at the Etihad

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Wednesday 19:30 kick-off
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If styles make fights then this could be a slugfest as both sides love to be on the front foot, and there's already a rematch clause involved as they'll meet again in the Premier League at the Etihad this weekend. So much here will depend on the line-ups and how Enzo Maresca and Fabian Hurzeler approach this.

Ironically they both lost at the weekend despite both dominating possession and creating plenty of chances but were undone by more clinical Villa and Liverpool sides. City are 4/71.57 at home with Brighton 7/24.50 outsiders but there's not much between them.

Brighton had kept five clean sheets on the spin before visiting Anfield, but with another top opposition plus team changes this should see plenty of goals. The last five at the Etihad have averaged six goals per game with both teams scoring 2+ goals in three of them - that could be a good bet again here.

Liverpool v Chelsea Tip - Back penalties at Anfield

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Wednesday 20:00 kick-off
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Xabi Alonso and Jordan Henderson return to Anfield with Chelsea smarting after a bad loss to Spurs while Liverpool have won four on the spin after losing to Man City - both he and Andoni Iraola have selection decisions to make with Man Utd visiting Stamford Bridge and Arsenal at Anfield this weekend.

The Reds are slight favourites at 7/52.40 with Chelsea priced at 13/82.63 but again team selection could make a huge difference. If multiple changes are made that could make the game a bit scrappy where Liverpool's extra quality up front could make the difference in the end - even if off the bench.

You can't ignore the 13/53.60 draw though as with no extra time it's not the worst result to go straight to penalties and I've a feeling this could be one of those games settled from the spot.

Fulham v Palace Tip - Back a scrappy home win at the Cottage

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Wednesday 19:45 kick-off
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Palace are in all kinds of trouble while Fulham have been grinding out 1-0s to ease the pressure on Alvaro Arbeloa - Pierre Sage is deperate for a win but does he go full strength here with a trip to Tottenham at the weekend? It's a big dilemma.

Fulham are just odds-on at 19/201.95 as there's no reason why Arbeloa shouldn't be targeting a cup run, while Palace are 5/23.50 suggesting Sage will be more concerned with three Premier League points at Spurs. It doesn't scream goals to me, but rather another low-scoring Fulham victory sounds about right.

Bournemouth v Villa Tip - Back south coast spot kicks

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Wednesday 19:45 kick-off
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Both of these are riding four-game winning runs with Bournemouth also bagging clean sheets with theirs - including back-to-back wins over AC Milan and Man Utd that must have Cherries fans in dreamland. And the hosts are 11/102.11 to keep that run going, with Villa 21/103.10.

I like both of these teams, and they've got their winning mojo running so are both hard to beat regardless of who plays - expect both to score but neither to lose in 90 minutes. Let's go for this to be another one settled via spot kicks.

Lewis Jones sees it differently - read why he is backing Bournemouth here

Sunderland v Brentford Tip - Back 7/24.50 Bees to sting Black Cats

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Wednesday 19:45 kick-off
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You never want to lose a game, but for rock-bottom Sunderland facing Coventry in the league at the weekend is a far more important game than this cup tie. That's maybe reflected in their price of 5/23.50 at home, while visiting Brentford are 1/12.00 despite arriving with the same record over the last three games of two draws and a defeat.

It's actually four draws in five aways now for Brentford so don't rule out yet another stalemate here at 13/53.60 but ultimately the Bees are a better side and the Black Cats definitely have other things on their minds right now. The Stadium of Light won't accept anything less than 100% effort so it'll be competitive, not too many goals on show but the extra quality of the visitors making the difference.

Everton v Newcastle Tip - Back Toffees to taste victory

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Thursday 19:45 kick-off
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A pretty tame effort at Arsenal made it three winless league games for Everton while Newcastle beat struggling Palace to actually go above the Toffees in the league, though neither fanbase is particularly happy right now. The Toon Army showed how much winning this trophy can lift a side so they should target this again - whether Matthias Jaissle has got the memo remains to be seen.

Newcastle are 2/13.00 and the away side has won the last three head-to-heads, but David Moyes will have his side fired up for this and I fancy 23/202.15 Everton in front of their home fans in a full-blooded contest. The Magpies suffered big away defeats at Leeds and Coventry recently and that frailty could raise its head again on the banks of the Mersey.

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