Watford v Burnley: Heatwave conditions could deliver a stalemate

Sarr stunner saves Watford

Watford boss Rob Edwards felt his side earned the luck that came their way in the 1-1 draw at West Brom on Monday. Ismaila Sarr put the Hornets ahead with a wonder goal, and could have won it late on, only to see his tame penalty saved. However, Albion largely dominated, with a combination of poor finishing and saves from Dan Bachmann keeping them out

Speaking post-match, Edwards complimented his side's effort, saying: "I can't say I enjoyed it. What I did enjoy was the heart and the fight we showed, especially in the second half. We couldn't keep the ball long enough; we couldn't find a rhythm and West Brom were the better team. Maybe there was a bit of a luck, but we earned that in a difficult place."

Former Villareal defender Mario Gaspar made his debut from the bench against West Brom and could feature from the off if Edwards decides to alter his unchanged team from the opening two encounters. Hassane Kamara has been operating from right wing-back having been utilised on the left flank during pre-season, suggesting a switch may be incoming.

Burnley held by the Hatters

Burnley chief Vincent Kompany was happy with his players' response as they came from a goal down to draw 1-1 with Luton Town at Turf Moor last weekend. The Clarets, fresh from their opening 1-0 win at Huddersfield, trailed to a Dan Potts goal on five minutes as the Hatters started the brighter and the home side struggled with the visitors' physicality.

But the introduction of new signing Manuel Benson at half-time changed the game, as Josh Brownhill levelled matters, with Burnley dominating the second half without finding a winner. Nevertheless, critics have claimed that the Clarets didn't do enough in the final-third having enjoyed over 70% of possession, forcing a solitary shot on-target.

Kompany said: "The players performed better in the second half and there were a lot of positives to take out of the game. We managed to create chances in the second half, and I think we can create even more and be more clinical, but that won't be perfect in the beginning. We had the game where we wanted it to be and we didn't give anything away."

Recent history against the Hornets

Watford have found the going tough against Burnley over the last two decades, registering only three league victories in the duo's most recent 18 meetings (W3-D7-L8). That run of results includes a solitary success in the past eight head-to-heads (W1-D2-L5), as well as an unfavourable Vicarage Road return against the Clarets going back to 2010/11 (W2-D3-L4).

Watford 2.3611/8 opened their account with an eye-catching home triumph with Sheffield United before being out-played at The Hawthorns on Monday night.

Edwards will expect more from his talented squad back at Vicarage Road on Friday night, especially with a formidable trident of Joao Pedro, Ismaila Sarr and Emmanuel Dennis leading the line.

Burnley 3.3512/5 have largely impressed in their first two fixtures under Vincent Kompany's watch. The Clarets - in the midst of major stylistic changes and undergoing plenty of overhaul in the squad's make-up this summer - showcased their potential when dominating Huddersfield, before holding last season's play-off semi-finalists Luton at Turf Moor.

Conditions could suit a stalemate

Collectively, Watford and Burnley have featured in four Championship matches in 2022/23 thus far with all four producing Under 2.5 Goals 1.728/11. Those four contests have involved an average of only 6.75 shots from inside the penalty area, whilst accumulating the non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) tally returns a meagre total of just 6.83 npxG.

Neither team has built up a head of steam following their Premier League demotions, and another tight tussle could be in the offing at Vicarage Road. With negative goal prices a little too skinny to support on Friday night, the Draw 3.259/4 comes into focus, with the Draw and Under 2.5 Goals of particular interest at 3.6013/5 on the Sportsbook (effectively ruling out a 2-2 or 3-3).

As a rule of thumb, the lower the goal expectancy, the higher chance of a stalemate.

And with Hertfordshire expected to be in the midst of a stifling heat wave - with evening conditions still hitting the high 20s - the pace of the game could well be impacted.