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Injuries beginning to bite Rotherham
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Leeds looking like promotion candidates
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Whites backed to bag Yorkshire derby success
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Rotherham 8.07/1 made the surprise move to sack manager Matt Taylor following a 5-0 thrashing at Watford before the international break. The heavy defeat left the Millers sitting 22nd in the Championship, four points from safety.
United have tasted victory only twice in 16 league outings this term and Rotherham chairman Tony Stewart felt the club "had to act now in order to give ourselves the best possible chance of retaining our Championship status this season", although a permanent replacement has yet to be appointed ahead of Friday night's fixture.
Assistant boss Wayne Carlisle has taken training this week but is overseeing a depleted squad. Midfielders Sam Clucas and Cafu had to go off with hamstring problems against Watford, while centre-half Daniel Ayala has also been suffering. The Millers are already without Cameron Humphreys, Tyler Blackett, Shane Ferguson and Andre Green.
Promotion-chasing Leeds 1.412/5 held on to beat Plymouth 2-1 in their most recent encounter despite a late fightback by the visitors at Elland Road. Sitting six points off the division's two pacesetters, the Whites now have pocketed top honours in seven of their past nine Championship contests (W7-D0-L2) thanks to goals from Dan James and Joel Piroe.
Leeds manager Daniel Farke demanded more from his troops post-match, saying, "When you are so dominant like we were in the first half, 2-0 up, we would've wished to score six or seven goals to win the game confidently. We made our lives more complicated than it should've been. Our defending in many ways was excellent. We allowed them one chance."
Sam Byram, Djed Spence and Stuart Dallas all remain unavailable for the visitors but Wilfried Gnonto has been passed fit despite picking up a slight knock when away on international duty. Farke isn't expected to make any major changes to his starting XI or system.
Leeds difficult to dismiss
Exclude penalties and Leeds boast the Championship's strongest performance data figures. The Whites top the Expected Goals (xG) ratio rankings, and whilst Farke's team have produced their most dominant displays at Elland Road, it was hard not to be impressed by the visitors' efforts when winning away at Leicester in their most recent road trip.
In contrast, Rotherham are rock-bottom of the same metric with the Millers proving only slightly better at their New York Stadium base. The hosts are returning a -0.69 xG per-game supremacy across eight home match-ups with no side conceding a higher xG figure in front of their own supporters; Rotherham are also facing 10.12 shots in the box per-game here.
Considering Rotherham have shipped at least two goals in four of their five New York Stadium showdowns with top-half teams, it's difficult to dismiss Leeds here. The Whites have seized maximum points from seven of 10 encounters with teams outside of the top-10 and so backing Leeds to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 5/4 holds plenty of appeal.
Expect Leeds to control the contests, dominate possession and make their superior firepower count over the 90 minutes. Our proposed play pays-out should the Whites win by a 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 or 2-1 correct score - six of Leeds' nine triumphs have arrived via this method with seven of Rotherham's nine league losses following suit.
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Recommended bets
Back Leeds to win and Under 3.5 Goals @ 5/42.25Mark's 2023/24 Profit/Loss
Staked: 31 pts
Returned: 37.56 pts
P/L: +6.56 pts