Rotherham v Brentford: Bees can bag narrow success

Rotherham v Brentford
Tuesday December 1, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

Rotherham impress in enjoyable draw

Freddie Ladapo scored twice to earn Rotherham a share of the points in an entertaining Championship clash with promotion-chasing Bournemouth at the New York Stadium on Saturday. It was the Millers' best performance of the season - Paul Warne's team were full of heart and running, and were well worthy of their share of the spoils in the 2-2 draw.

Ladapo levelled from close range after Junior Stanislas had put the Cherries ahead with a 20th-minute penalty. Despite Bournemouth pressure, it was Rotherham who edged in front through Ladapo's second, five minutes into the second half. But the visitors equalised on the hour to set-up a frantic finale in which both sides had chances to claim maximum points.

Post-match, Warne said: "It's the most complete performance we've had this season in 90 minutes. The last two games we've been good in the second half of both but not the first, so we definitely addressed that. I asked the lads to be brave and I knew they'd have opportunities. I thought we created the most chances to win the game."

Brentford beat capital rivals

Brentford beat West London neighbours QPR 2-1 on Friday to stretch their unbeaten Championship run to seven matches (W3-D4-L0). Vitaly Janelt's left-foot shot put the Bees ahead on 14 minutes, but Rangers levelled only 12 minutes later. Top goalscorer Ivan Toney headed the 64th-minute winner from a whipped right-foot cross by Emiliano Marcondes.

Thomas Frank's team were fortunate not to have been reduced to 10 men after last man Mads Bech Sorensen brought down Lyndon Dykes but Brentford survived the scare and clinched a vital victory. Rico Henry was once again at the heart of the Bees' most positive pieces of play, whilst Toney's winner was his 12th goal since signing in the summer.

Post-match, Frank said: "It was a great win and it showed what we are all about in terms of hard work, top attitude and togetherness. Do we want to play outstanding, beautiful football in 46 matches? Yes. Will that happen? No. It doesn't happen in a normal season and in a different season, definitely not. You need to dig out a win like this. Great win."

Millers capable of staying competitive

Rotherham have lost their last three league games against Brentford, shipping 13 goals. the Millers boasted a W3-D1-L1 record as hosts against the Bees before last season's 4-2 loss here against the West Londoners in January - Brentford are now looking to claim consecutive road victories at Rotherham for the first time since February 1999.

Rotherham 4.607/2 have remained competitive in 2020/21. Despite losing half of their 14 fixtures, Paul Warne's underdogs have only been beaten by a margin of two goals or more twice. Recently-relegated Norwich and Bournemouth have both been given serious tests of their credentials here, although the hosts have W0-D2-L7 when excluding the bottom-eight.

Traditionally slow starters, Brentford 1.8910/11 are in touch with the top-six without finding top gear. The Bees boast a solitary reverse in 10 since October's international break (W5-D4-L1) and have also improved on their travels. Since being beaten on the opening day, Thomas Frank's team have posted W3-D2-L1 on their travels, keeping three successive shutouts.

Bees can bag narrow success

Both Rotherham and Brentford have each seen Over 2.5 Goals 1.9720/21 collect in 6/14 (43%) of their respective Championship outings thus far as both sides scoring has also landed in half of those 14 encounters. With both of the Millers' matches here against Norwich and Bournemouth following that same pattern, it's easy to see why goals could be sought here.

Considering the two sides play in such contrasting styles, I'm happy to swerve the goal markets altogether and instead take the 3.505/2 available on Betfair Sportsbook for Brentford to win by exactly a one-goal margin. It's proven profitable in five of Rotherham's seven meetings with top-half teams since promotion back to the second-tier.