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Watford's last nine games have landed BTTS
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But QPR have scored just one in their last three at home
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Since Dec 1st Watford rank 5th for attacking xG
QPR v Watford
Sunday, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Football
After a run of three wins in a row in early December, things were looking up for QPR under new manager Marti Cifuentes, but a miserable festive period then yielded just two points from a possible 18 and currently has them 23rd and four points from safety.
Watford are also in the midst of a winless run, although theirs is only three games long, but goals have been following Valerian Ismael's side around in recent weeks. The 3-3 draw last time out at Plymouth Argyle was the latest in a run of nine games in a row where BTTS has copped, with 33 goals scored in total.
The race for the play-offs now looks like a battle for 5th and 6th, but with just 10 points separating 5th-17th, it still looks like an open heat. Watford are right amongst it in 10th, and will feel like it's games like this against relegation candidates that might make or break their season.
Buck the BTTS trend
Many will see the recent BTTS run that Watford are on and stick it straight into the betslip, but I think there are enough worries about QPR's attacking capabilities to give it a swerve this time. They've scored just the one goal in their last three home games, and have just 11 in total this season at Loftus Road.
If we take out the Argyle game, with Home Park often being the venue for goal-fests, Watford's defensive record on the road has been ok, conceding just the once in games against Blackburn, Preston and Hull. If we go back a bit further, before the 2-0 defeat at Leicester, there were even back-to-back clean sheets.
Hornets to Nest
While we might have reservations about QPR's ability to score, Watford have scored 12 goals in their last four away trips. They look to be a happier side when playing away and the game is a bit more open, as they sometimes struggle to break teams down who sit off them at Vicarage Road.
They've got the 5th highest xG four in the Championship since the start of December so, if they are able to nullify QPR's waning attacking threat, they should at the very least be able to get the goal to take home all three points.
Watford to win to nil @ 3/14.00 looks the best way to play this Sunday showdown in west London.
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