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Over 4.5 cards landed in 4 of ref's last 6
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McLean booked 9 times this season
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Sainz committed 2+ fouls in 3 of last 4 games
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Norwich v Ipswich
Saturday, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports Football
We're often told these days that a game of football is 'massive,' or that it 'doesn't get much bigger than this.' This game, though, really is massive. Let's put the ferocious hatred between the two teams to one side for a second and just look at what's at stake for both.
Norwich come into this still in sixth despite an Easter Monday defeat at Leicester, thanks to most of the teams below them also losing. There is a four-point gap to Coventry in seventh and one more to Preston, but both of those sides have a game in hand on the Canaries, so dropped points here would take their play-off hopes out of their own hands.
It's not a dissimilar situation with Ipswich, who would take a four-point lead over Leeds with a win here and pull five ahead of Leicester. Their games-in-hand would come at 3pm though, and Town can surely expect to lose the first position by 5pm if they don't take all three points.
| Teams | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | PTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coventry | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 97 | 45 | 95 |
| 2 | Ipswich | 46 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 80 | 47 | 84 |
| 3 | Millwall | 48 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 64 | 49 | 83 |
| 4 | Southampton | 48 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 82 | 56 | 80 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 49 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 72 | 47 | 80 |
| 6 | Hull | 49 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 70 | 66 | 73 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | 71 |
| 8 | Derby | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 67 | 59 | 69 |
| 9 | Norwich | 46 | 19 | 8 | 19 | 63 | 56 | 65 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 57 | 56 | 64 |
| 11 | Swansea | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 57 | 59 | 64 |
| 12 | Bristol C | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 59 | 59 | 62 |
| 13 | Sheff Utd | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 66 | 66 | 60 |
| 14 | Preston | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 55 | 62 | 60 |
| 15 | QPR | 46 | 16 | 10 | 20 | 61 | 73 | 58 |
| 16 | Watford | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53 | 65 | 57 |
| 17 | Stoke | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 51 | 56 | 55 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 49 | 64 | 55 |
| 19 | Charlton | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 44 | 58 | 53 |
| 20 | Blackburn | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 42 | 56 | 52 |
| 21 | West Brom | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 48 | 58 | 51 |
| 22 | Oxford | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 45 | 59 | 47 |
| 23 | Leicester | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 58 | 68 | 46 |
| 24 | Sheff Wed | 46 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 29 | 89 | 0 |
Now we can throw into the mix the rabid contempt that these two fanbases feel towards each other, with the sprinkling of intrigue that a Norwich win would make a two-legged Old Farm derby in the play-offs much more likely. This is not just another game.
Leg 1: Over 4.5 cards
There were only two cards when these two sides met earlier on the season, but we can expect that to be the exception rather than the rule.
Referee for the day Matt Donohue has averaged 4.35 yellows per game this season in the Championship so, given both the expected feisty nature of the match and what's at stake, we can expect him go past that here. This would have copped in four of the last six games Donohue officiated.
Leg 2: Kenny McLean to be shown a card
McLean has been shown nine yellow cards this season, so it's a huge surprise to see him available at 7/2 in this market and I wouldn't put you off a single.
He'll be in a physical midfield battle with Sam Morsy and Massimo Luongo and has to be the most likely Norwich player to pick up a card, which is not reflected in his price.
Leg 3: Borja Sainz to commit 2+ fouls
As a wide-player with an eye for spectacular goals, the defensive side of Sainz's game is somewhat lesser known.
He's committed two or more fouls in seven games this season, including in three of Norwich's last four games. We can expect plenty of infringmenets here and Sainz is a big price to be involved.
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