Derby v QPR: Few goals fancied at Pride Park

Derby v QPR
Wednesday November 4, 19:45
Sky Sports

Derby denied late on

Derby appeared on course to end the EFL's only remaining unbeaten record on Saturday but a late Bournemouth equaliser scuppered the spirited Rams' hopes of only a second league success this season as the encounter ended 1-1. It was tough on Phillip Cocu's side, for whom Wayne Rooney was returning for the first time following a period of self-isolation.

Rooney was influential early on and helped to put County in front as his free-kick bounced down off the wall to Graeme Shinnie, who scored via a deflection. Derby were deserving of their lead, with Martyn Waghorn and Matthew Clarke having already spurned good chances to score prior to the opener. And the Rams proved resilient soaking up pressure thereafter.

Rooney returned to the XI along with fit-again goalkeeper David Marshall, and defender Mike te Wierik with Polish winger Kamil Jozwiak dropping out through injury. There was a place on the bench for Krystian Bielik, who has been out for almost 10 months, and post-match Cocu insisted his team are back on the right track despite a lack of victories.

QPR clinch overdue victory

Dominic Ball's stunning stoppage-time strike gave QPR their first win in eight on Saturday against Cardiff. Rangers had stormed into a two-goal half-time lead through llias Chair and Todd Kane but the Bluebirds battled back to level proceedings with just five minutes to play. But Ball, on as a substitute, blasted home from 25 yards to end the R's miserable run in emphatic fashion.

Mark Warburton rejigged his side following injury and suspension issues with contract rebel Bright Oseyi-Samuel recalled and Albert Adomah handed a first Championship start since signing, whilst Kane and Conor Masterson came into the back-four. And QPR looked nothing like a side under pressure, forcing Cardiff onto the back foot from the outset.

Warburton was happy to saviour the success but believes there's still plenty to work on. He said, "In the first half we played very well and looked a very good team. Energy was the key. We played with real intensity and purpose. But it's a 90-minute game. We've got to learn from the second half, where we shot ourselves in the foot by giving away ridiculous penalties."

Odds suggest a close contest

Derby have enjoyed recent contests with the capital club, winning five of their last six home league meetings with QPR at Pride Park, recording a clean sheet in each of those victories in an unbeaten sequence (W5-D1-L0). The Rams had avoided defeat in their last seven head-to-head meetings with Rangers until February's match-up in West London.

Despite obvious improvements since the early part of the season, Derby 2.3611/8 have played out three successive 1-1 draws and tabled a solitary league success in nine to occupy a place in the bottom-three. The Rams are also seven without victory on home soil (W0-D2-L5) when straddling the backend of last term, the hosts' worst home run of results since 2011.

QPR 3.1511/5 picked up their first triumph of 2020/21 since the opening day on Saturday and head back on the road on Wednesday having managed only two wins in their past 17 away days in the Championship (W2-D6-L9). Rangers have failed to take top honours in seven (W0-D4-L3) games as guests and earned just two points from 12 on their travels this term.

Oppose goals at Pride Park

Neither Derby nor QPR have been the most prolific clubs' to follow for goal-filled games thus far. Collectively, the duo have delivered Over 2.5 Goals [2.04 ]in only five of 18 collective Championship contests; the Rams have failed to score more than once in any game, whilst Rangers were without a league goal in 375 minutes before the weekend.

Indeed, both sides have fired blanks in four of their nine outings, with the duo also generating some of the lowest Expected Goals (xG) outputs from open play. With that in mind, I'm happy to take the 1.784/5 available on Under 2.5 Goals, a selection that's proven profitable in 13 of these sides' encounters, as well as 67% of the division's games in 2020/21.