Final Day Championship Tips: Rovers to fall short in playoff battle

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Gary Rowett will be hoping that his side can secure their top six spot

It's the final weekend of the campaign and Jack Critchley has selected his best bets for each of the 12 Championship fixtures...

  • Lions to clinch top six position

  • WBA to fall short on the road...again

  • Seasiders to go down with one final hurrah


Attritional and cagey 90 minutes at the Den

Millwall 1.9520/21 v Blackburn 43/1; The Draw 3.929/10

Millwall are in the driving seat when it comes to clinching the final play-off spot. The Lions have been one of the most consistent teams in the Championship and although a point may be enough to clinch sixth spot, they will still be wary of both Sunderland and Swansea, who remain just two points behind the Bermondsey outfit.

Gary Rowett's men secured an important three points at Blackpool last weekend, ending a run of two straight defeats. Despite winning just two of their last eight games and failing to score in five of those fixtures, they've somehow held onto their top six spot and very few sides will want to face them in the play-offs.

Despite their recent struggle for goals, Millwall are the only side in the second tier to possess two players who have reached the 15-goal mark with both Zian Flemming and Tom Bradshaw having enjoyed terrific seasons.

Blackburn's draw against Luton on Monday has left Rovers two points shy of the top six and they simply have to win this game to give themselves any chance of extending their season. Jon Dahl Tomasson's side have struggled for firepower this season with only eight sides having netted fewer. Relegated Blackpool have managed just one goal fewer than shot-shy Rovers.

Rovers' defence has enabled to stick around the top six this season with JDT having made them exceptionally tough to beat. They've conceded just four times across their last five matches and have suffered just four defeats since January 14th.

The visitors don't win enough games on the road and with Millwall in control of their own destiny here, it wouldn't be a surprise to witness a defensive masterclass from the hosts.

Back Millwall or Draw Double Chance and Under 2.5 Goals @

2.13

Sky Blues to go for the jugular at the Riverside

Middlesbrough 2.568/5 v Coventry 2.89/5; The Draw 3.6553/20

This appears to be a dress rehearsal for the play-offs with both Coventry and Middlesbrough hoping to maintain some momentum.

Boro have suffered two consecutive defeats, albeit with heavily rotated XIs. The Teessiders are a different beast at the Riverside and their matches have been hugely entertaining at this venue.

Although the stats tell us that the hosts have won just two of their last seven, their only home defeat during that run came against promoted Burnley.

Michael Carrick's men have netted 13 goals across their last four matches here and they should have enough firepower to get on the scoresheet here.

Coventry only need a point to completely guarantee their participation in the play-offs. Mark Robins has done a fantastic job on a relatively modest budget and with key players having missed huge chunks of the campaign, he should be praised for successfully maintaining the club's play-off push.

The Sky Blues haven't lost on the road since the beginning of February and have netted 15 times during that exceptional run of form.

However, they also haven't managed to keep a clean sheet when visiting any side in the top nine and this could be another entertaining affair.

Back Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS @

1.85

Black Cats to end the season on a high

Preston 4.131/10 v Sunderland 1.981/1; The Draw 3.711/4

Sunderland cannot afford to drop points in this one. Tony Mowbray's side are two points shy of the play-offs and even if they collect maximum points here, they aren't guaranteed to finish in the top six.

The Black Cats have been better on the road this season and have suffered just a single defeat when visiting sides outside of the top ten. They have managed to maintain their play-off push despite losing both centre backs and having seen their talisman Ross Stewart pick up a season-ending injury at the beginning of 2023.

They were the better side in their 2-2 draw against Watford firing in 26 shots during that encounter and they should be able to create plenty of chances on Monday afternoon.

Preston are ending the season in fairly poor form. Having said that, three of their last four matches have been away from Deepdale and they are unbeaten here since February 4th.

Nevertheless, the visitors should approach this match with far greater urgency and should have enough talent to find a way through.

Back Over 1.5 Sunderland Goals @

10/11

Swans to end Baggies' play-off dreams

Swansea 3.052/1 v West Brom 2.265/4; The Draw 3.711/4

Swansea cannot reach the play-offs despite ending the season strongly. They are ending the campaign in excellent form and despite the uncertainty surrounding Russell Martin's future, the news of future investment has given fans a much-needed lift.

They were the better side against Hull last weekend and have won six of their last eight matches. There may be very little to play for, yet it's difficult to completely write them off given the way they have been playing.

West Brom have given themselves an outside chance of reaching the top six, however, even a victory in this encounter may not be enough to extend their season. WBA have won just three of their last nine matches and have won just twice on the road since mid-January.

The visitors have plenty of injuries and that may also hinder their chances of taking three points from this tricky assignment.

Back Swansea Draw No Bet @

6/5

Luton and Hull to cancel one another out

Luton 1.654/6 v Hull 5.59/2; The Draw 4.131/10

Luton are gearing up for the play-offs and it remains to be seen whether Rob Edwards opts to rest and rotate on Monday afternoon.

The Hatters have enjoyed a terrific campaign and have suffered just eight defeats all season. They're also unbeaten since slipping up against Premier League-bound Burnley in mid-February.

Hull are also incredibly difficult to beat. Liam Rosenior has tightened up the Tigers' defence, although it's often been at the expense of their attacking output. The visitors have drawn four of their last five away games and haven't won on the road since January 2nd. This is likely to be tight.

Back Draw @

4.1

How the Championship table looks ahead of the final day


Dobbie's seasiders to end the season on a high

Norwich 1.51/2 v Blackpool 6.411/2; The Draw 4.67/2

It's been a season to forget for Norwich who have tamely dropped away from the top six.

David Wagner's spell at the club started brightly, yet questions are now being asked of the German's ability to galvanise this squad. The Canaries have won just one of their last ten and haven't won at Carrow Road since the end of February. A big summer clearout is required.

Blackpool are heading into League One, however, they have shown some fight under caretaker boss Stephen Dobbie.

They were excellent for periods of the game against Millwall and have won two of their last four. They might have just about enough to take something from this clash.

Back Blackpool or Draw Double Chance @

6/4

Terriers to inflict further misery on the Royals

Huddersfield 2.0621/20 v Reading 3.711/4; The Draw 3.613/5

Huddersfield secured their safety on Thursday night by edging past Sheffield United.

The Terriers' unlikely survival can be exclusively attributed to the motivational powers of Neil Warnock and the veteran Yorkshireman is unlikely to allow his side to take their eye off the ball on Monday afternoon.

It took until November 8th for the hosts to secure their first five victories of the season, yet they've managed to equal that total in their last eight encounters.

Reading were relegated without kicking a ball and although their points deduction has played a significant role in their demotion, they haven't been good enough all season.

The Royals have failed to win any of their last 12 and are heading down with a whimper.

Back Huddersfield to beat Reading @

2.1

Drab affair at St. Andrews

Birmingham 3.929/10 v Sheffield United 2.0421/20; The Draw 3.55/2

John Eustace should be commended for keeping Birmingham up against the odds.

The Blues' youthful squad is likely to be overhauled this summer, although Eustace is keen to base next season's squad around his excellent and dynamic midfield. Nevertheless, it's been a slow end to the campaign with three defeats in four and just two goals scored.

Sheffield United were defeated by Huddersfield on Thursday, yet Paul Heckingbottom's side have already clinched promotion.

Their recent away form has been fairly forgettable and it's hard to imagine that they'll be busting a gut to collect maximum points.

Back Under 2.5 Goals @

3/4

Hornets' individual talent to shine through

Watford 2.486/4 v Stoke 3.052/1; The Draw 3.55/2

Chris Wilder will not be in charge of Watford next season. The former Sheffield United boss hasn't enjoyed a particularly productive spell in Hertfordshire with the Hornets falling drastically short of expectations.

Nevertheless, they have a number of talented players and the likes of Joao Pedro and Ismaila Sarr may view this as a good opportunity to put themselves in the shop window.

Stoke have ended the season poorly and have failed to win any of their last six matches. They've found the net just three times during that underwhelming sequence and look unlikely to clinch victory at Vicarage Road.

Back Watford to beat Stoke @

2.48

Latics and Millers to exchange blows

Wigan 2.0811/10 v Rotherham 3.5551/20; The Draw 3.412/5

Despite ending the season fairly strongly, Wigan have dropped into the third tier.

Shaun Maloney has improved performances and is likely to be retained by the club. The Scot may look to the future here and could potentially give several younger players the chance to impress at the DW.

Goals have been an issue this season, yet they have managed to find the net in each of their last three.

Rotherham secured their safety on Monday and Millers fans can put their feet up and enjoy this final day fixture. Matt Taylor has done an excellent job and he may also opt to make several changes to the XI on Monday afternoon.

Both sides can approach this one with a sense of freedom and that should produce a decent spectacle.

Back Both Teams to Score @

1.72

Robins to end the season on a high

QPR 2.447/5 v Bristol City 32/1; The Draw 3.613/5

QPR secured their safety with a game to go.

Gareth Ainsworth has struggled yet he has managed to accrue just enough points to preserve the club's Championship status.

Nevertheless, the R's haven't been great in any of those encounters and this could potentially prove to be a tricky final day fixture.

Bristol City have had a tough run of fixtures, yet they've been far from disgraced in any of those games. They may have won just one of their last eight away fixtures, yet they should have enough take at least a point from this one.

Back Bristol City Draw No Bet @

11/10

Entertaining finale at Turf Moor

Burnley 1.351/3 v Cardiff 9.89/1; The Draw 5.49/2

Burnley have been a class above the majority of their rivals this season and the Clarets will be expected to end on a high.

Vincent Kompany's side are likely to give Ashley Barnes a decent send-off on Monday afternoon and having seen off Blackburn and Bristol City in the last fortnight, they are unlikely to drop points in this one.

Cardiff were atrocious against Huddersfield on Sunday lunchtime and although the Bluebirds are perfectly safe, they have been poor for the majority of the campaign. Sabri Lamouchi looks likely to stick around, however, this is a tough final day fixture for the Frenchman.

Back Over 2.5 Goals @

6/10

Recommended bets

Back Millwall or Draw Double Chance and Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.13

Back Swansea Draw No Bet (vs West Brom) @ 6/5

Back Blackpool Draw No Bet (vs Norwich) @ 6/4

Jack's 2022-23 Profit/Loss:

Staked: 388.00

Returned: 389.34

P/L: +1.34

Jack Critchley

Jack is a betting broadcaster and journalist of 10+ years and has been covering the Championship for Betfair since the beginning of the 2019 season.

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