Cardiff v Swansea: Goals at a premium in derby date

Cardiff v Swansea
Saturday December 12, 12:30
Sky Sports

Cardiff extend winning streak

Cardiff captain Sean Morrison had a remarkable evening of lows and highs as the Bluebirds came from behind to win away against Stoke on Tuesday night. The City skipper scored an own goal to hand the hosts a first-half lead, turning a cross into his own net from close range. The Bluebirds centre-back then conceded a penalty after the break.

However, Cardiff cat Alex Smithies saved the resulting spot-kick and momentum soon shifted in the capital club's favour. Robert Glatzel came off the bench to equalise for Neil Harris' outfit before Morrison sealed his redemption by heading in the winning goal from a corner with 15 minutes left to play, bagging a fourth successive victory for the Bluebirds.

Harris, under pressure in November, was delighted with the turnaround and said: "It's fantastic. It wasn't a game for the purists - it was a really tough, physical battle between two good, aggressive Championship sides. To have the confidence and belief to come from behind against a team that's been in top form, that was impressive."

Swansea keep Bournemouth at bay

Swansea played out an entertaining goalless draw with high-flying Bournemouth in midweek. The Swans, boasting the division's best defensive record, stood firm at the Liberty Stadium with goalkeeper Freddie Woodman denying Cherries playmaker David Brooks in the game's best opportunity as Steve Cooper's charges kept a ninth clean sheet.

It was a satisfying performance from the hosts, especially so considering the group's vaunted rearguard was depleted by injury. Cooper's backline had something of a patched-up look with Ryan Bennett and Marc Guehi missing, although ex-Manchester City youngster Joel Latibeaudiere enjoyed a promising full debut in the Swans' preferred 3-5-2 system.

Jamal Lowe forced the only notable save of the night from Swansea but Cooper was content with what he saw, saying: "I'm not disappointed. I think it was a tough game and I thought it was a fair result. We would have liked to have had more of the ball, and I think we could have been a bit better with it, for sure. We turned the ball over at times too much."

Tight tussle anticipated

Last season's meetings were the first fixtures between Cardiff and Swansea since the pair crossed swords during their Premier League days in 2013/14. The two tussles were tight affairs with the Swans pinching the only goal over the two games; the goalless draw in the capital extended the guests' fine record in Cardiff to W3-D4-L2 across their past nine visits.

Cardiff 2.466/4 were languishing in the bottom-half and questions were being asked about Neil Harris' future three weeks ago but the Bluebirds have motored into top-six contention on the back of a four-game winning run. Watford and Stoke were downed on the road in the past week, although performances as hosts have proven inconsistent (W3-D2-L3 thus far.

Swansea 3.052/1 are amongst the leading pack having been beaten only thrice in their opening 17 outings (W8-D6-L3). Steve Cooper's troops' have proven to be rock-solid competitors, giving few opportunities away, and shipping multiple goals just twice. However, the visitors have returned W1-D3-L2 on the road when discounting the bottom-four.

Oppose goals in the capital

Five of the most recent six contests between Cardiff and Swansea have produced no more than a sole goal, although further back this fixture has featured Over 2.5 Goals 2.206/5 in six of 10 league encounters since November 2008. Considering the high stakes of a South Wales derby, opposing goals appears the most obvious angle of attack.

Only 9/34 (26%) of the duos combined Championship contests have produced three goals or more with 14/34 (41%) rewarding Both Teams To Score backers. The second-tier continues to post underwhelming goal returns and the pressure involved in this match-up should ensure another tight, attritional and low-scoring showdown follows.

With that in mind, I'm happy to take the 1.9110/11 available on 'No' in the Both Teams To Score column, a selection that implies just a 54% chance of success. It's proven profitable in each of the past six encounters between the Welsh pair, as well as 7/16 (44%) of the duos respective home/away matches this term.