-
Not The Top 20 are hoping for a third straight winner
-
Tahith Chong the key player in this fixture
-
Three bets, including two 20/1 tips
Burnley v Birmingham, Tuesday 27th December 2022, 8pm ko Sky Sports Football
Kompany's boys running hot
Vincent Kompany has made a stellar start to his managerial career in English football and it is impossible to fault title-favourites Burnley's start to the season. The break for the World Cup, and the manager's trip to Qatar for punditry duties, don't seem to have had a negative effect after two resounding wins against QPR and Middlesbrough since returning.
There is an argument that the Clarets' purple patch in front of goal could catch up with them at some point, although it may not make much difference to their promotion bid given they've covered the -1 handicap in seven of their 13 Championship wins. The 38 goals open play that they have scored, however, have come from an xG of 24.33 and star-signing Manuel Benson's 0.8xG per 90 is from just 0.21.
In the 3-1 win over Middlesbrough last weekend his goals came from a long-range shot at the near post and an overhit cross that went straight in, both of which 'keeper Zach Steffen will feel he should have saved. The other was a Jonny Howson own goal, and it does feel like Burnley are due some bad luck in front of goal at some stage this season.
Eustace far from useless
Birmingham were one of the ante-post favourites for relegation but have been the surprise package of the Championship. With off-field issues aplenty last season and through the summer, Technical Director Craig Gardner deserves immense credit for both the appointment of Eustace, and the smart recruitment of young talent like Tahith Chong, Emmanuel Longelo and Hannibal Mejbri.
Birmingham sit in 9th place ahead of the Christmas fixtures and look to have a genuine chance of launching a most unlikely play-off push. The open-play xG ratio table since the beginning of October has Blues 7th, and Eustace will be keen to use this trip to Turf Moor to show that his side are no flash in the pan.
Burnley fans of a midweek Claret
Birmingham fans making the trip north should do so with caution, as Burnley are unbeaten in their last 10 midweek league games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), winning five of them, since a 2-0 defeat to Leicester in the Premier League in March.
They are also unbeaten in their last five league games against Birmingham (W2 D3), with the reverse meeting this season ending 1-1, but there is some hope for the away side given they have won two of their last four away league games against Burnley (D1 L1), though this is their first visit to Turf Moor since a 2-2 draw in August 2015.
O Chong All Ye Faithful
Tahith Chong scored his first goal of the season in the 3-2 win over Reading last weekend, and we need to be backing him to get on the scoresheet again here. Scott Hogan was missing for that game, so midfielder Chong played up front alongside Troy Deeney and the chances are he will get the chance to do so again here.
He had four shots in that games totalling an impressive 0.85xG, so the goal was no fluke and he should get the chance to double his tally for the season against a Burnley side who, for all their strengths, have only kept clean sheets in seven of their 23 games.
The 9/1 about Chong to score anytime is massive value, and we need to play the 19/1 first and last goalscorer as well. A 1-0 away win with Chong on the scoresheet would therefore make this a very Merry Christmas indeed.