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Real qualified 18/19 times winning first leg by 2+ goals
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Chelsea only scored one goal in their last five games
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Back Real Madrid to beat Chelsea to nil at 16/5
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Chelsea left needing a miracle
We've seen some miracles in the Champions League over the years, but given how bad Chelsea have been of late this would rival the lot if they could upset the defending champions at Stamford Bridge.
Considering they had Ben Chilwell sent off last week, the only plus point for Chelsea is that they 'only' have a 2-0 deficit to overcome, but if there's one team in Europe you don't want to have to chase the game against it's Carlo Ancelotti's team.
Frank Lampard is going in with hope more than expectation, but Chelsea have gone through in five of their past seven Champions League ties when losing the first leg away - including in their last two when losing by a couple of goals.
They've not won in six though after being outplayed by Brighton on Saturday - this really would be a monumental turnaround of this Chelsea side pulled it off.
Confident Real look hard to beat
Ancelotti made a number of changes for Madrid's 2-0 win at Cadiz at the weekend, with Vinicius Junior and Toni Kroos missing the game with muscle injuries only a slight concern as both are expected to play.
Marco Asensio is pushing for a start after scoring against Cadiz following his strike against Chelsea last week coming off the bench - but Rodrygo has probably done enough to keep his place.
Unsurprisingly, Real have qualified from 18 of the 19 Champions League ties when they've won the first leg by at least a couple of goals, while they've also now won a joint club record five knockout games in a row.
The 14-time European champions are rightly huge favourites to reach a third straight semi-final.
Back Real to win the game
Chelsea are only 7/1 to somehow qualify, which seems pretty short to anyone who watched them against Brighton, while Real are 1/14 to go through as expected.
The draw at 5/2 could be in play here as I doubt Lampard will go gung-ho from the start and risk been demolished on the break - but the bet here is Real Madrid to win the second leg at 29/20.
It's such a tough assignment for Chelsea who could well fall into the 'stick or twist' conundrum, and Real have enough quality to control the ball, but also soak up pressure and hit on the break.
If Real score first they kill the tie off, and given Chelsea's goal against Brighton was their only one in five games then I can easily see a Real win to nil here at 16/5.
Back Benzema to bag again
I don't think Karim Benzema will ever get the credit he deserves, as with 14 goals and two assists in Madrid's last nine knockout ties he's a scoring phenomenon.
Vinicius Junior has been involved in 20 goals in 20 Champions League games, spread evenly with 10 goals and 10 assists, and these two will no doubt be involved in everything good for Real going forward.
Benzema is 13/10 to score anytime as he has done in his last three games against Chelsea - including a hat-trick at Stamford Bridge last year, while Vinicius is 13/5.
French forward Benzema scored first last week and on his last visit to Stamford Bridge, and at 4/1 to score first again he's worth backing to break the deadlock once more on what should be a reasonably comfortable evening for the visitors.
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Only one place to start and that's with Benzema to have 2+ shots on target as he so often does - including three last week against Chelsea.
We'll add in Reece James to have 2+ fouls, as he has done in four of his last five Champions League games - and with Chelsea needing to get stuck in from the start there's every chance he gives a couple away against Vinicius.
And for the same reason, N'Golo Kante, who gave away two fouls at the Bernabeu, looks a nice price at 7/5.
He didn't play against Brighton but will surely start this big game and look to get about Real's cultured midfield trying to unsettle the likes of Modric and Kroos.