Wednesday's Champions League Tips: Back 4/1 Dortmund and Spurs stalemate in final round

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Paul Higham's Champions League tips for Wednesday include a 4/1 Dortmund pick

Paul Higham has a mega Wednesday tipsheet with a bet for every game of the final round of Champions League action, including a [4/1] shot in Dortmund and wins for Man City and Liverpool but disappointment for Spurs...


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Ajax v Olympiakos

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

After two wins on the spin Olympiakos have edged into the final play-off spot only on goals scored so while a win won't guarantee their place it should really be enough. Somehow Ajax are still in with a shout after also winning their last two but it'd take a minor miracle thanks to their goal difference.

The Greeks are 13/102.30 favourites to make it three on the spin for the first time in a decade, but they are notoriously bad travellers, winning one of the past 13 UCL group away games. Ajax, though, have lost all three at home without scoring a goal and, with three clean sheets in four on the road, we'll take the visitors to get the result they need.


Arsenal v Kairat Almaty

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

Only 60/161.00 underdogs Almaty (who for the record have just a point against Pafos to their names) stand between Arsenal and a perfect record, which they'll get regardless of who Mikel Arteta decides to play. There's not much value on Arsenal win markets unless you fancy the visitors to score - which they have in all three of their away games.

So preference is elsewhere and with Viktor Gyokeres likely to start let's back him to bag a couple of goals, after scoring off the bench against Inter he should be able to gobble up some of the many chances the Gunners will create.


Athletic Bilbao v Sporting Lisbon

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

Bilbao are clinging on to the play-off spots while Sporting are chasing an automatic last-16 place so there is all to play for in this one, where the hosts are 5/42.25 favourites with the visitors yet to win on the road - although their trips to Napoli, Juve and Bayern were about as tough as it gets.

The Portuguese got a draw at Juventus and scored in the other two, while Athletic held PSG to a 0-0 draw last week so they're evenly matched, but with the hosts having to force the issue there's value in Sporting to do a job.


Atletico Madrid v Bodo/Glimt

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

A letdown game for Bodo possibly after that epic win over Man City, although the Norwegians did draw at Dortmund in their last away game so they have the ability. Atletico need three points badly, however, so you have to back them to get them.

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals has landed in Bodo's last eight European aways and nine of Atleti's last 10 home ties.


Barcelona v FC Copenhagen

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

FC Copenhagen have won seven points from three games to stand a chance of pinching a play-off spot, but Barca need a win to move into the automatic spots and have won 13 of the last 14. They've been leaky at the back in Europe though, with six of seven seeing both teams find the net, while scoring over three goals per game on average in home group matches.


Benfica v Real Madrid

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

Benfica need a win and plenty of help to scrape a play-off spot and Jose Mourinho would love to finally get something against his former employers as he's never beaten Real Madrid. Benfica's last three home games have seen four goals and there's been over 2.5 in six of eight Madrid away games in the competition - but the crucial stat is the 2+ first-half goals scored in each of Real's last three UCL games.


Club Brugge v Marseille

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

It could be a bit of winner-takes-all here as 27th placed Club Brugge would overtake Marseille in 19th with a win which would likely be enough to grab a play-off place. L'OM could actually survive even with defeat as the teams around them have tough fixtures.

The stats say goals as over 2.5 has landed in 15 of Brugge's last 16 and six of the last seven for Marseille, while the French side are also joint-top in the league phase for yellow cards, so expect to see a few of those. 


Borussia Dortmund v Inter Milan

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

Inter are a point ahead of Dortmund in 14th and more likely to bag an automatic spot with a win, but they've lost three on the spin albeit in tough games against Atletico, Liverpool and Arsenal. Dortmund drew a rare blank after an early red card at Spurs, but expect to see them back to their usual attacking selves here.

Dortmund have one defeat in 21 UCL matches at home so it's another tough assignment for Inter who will try and get back to basics and focus on nullifying the home threat first and foremost - but their away form suggests they'll struggle so I fancy Dortmund to come out on top in something of a shootout.



Eintracht Frankfurt v Tottenham

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

Just the one win with the joint-worst defence in the league phase so far (19 goals conceded) in a disaster of a campaign for Frankfurt, leaves them as 3/14.00 home underdogs against a surprising Spurs in fourth. Fixtures have helped under-fire Thomas Frank, as this is the fifth game against a team outside the qualifying spots in the standings.

It really should be a regulation away win, but I've seen enough of Spurs this season not to trust them one bit, so I'm calling this one a draw.


Read Joe Dyer's full match preview & best bets for Frankfurt v Tottenham


Bayer Leverkusen v Villarreal

20:00 kick-off
Live on DIscovery+

Leverkusen are in the play-off spots thanks to their away form, winning seven of their nine points on the road, and in fact they're winless in four European home games but Villarreal are in wretched form and winless in the UCL so far. 

The only thing Villarreal have excelled in is being booked - they are joint-top of the card charts after seven games.


Liverpool v Qarabag

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+ & TNT Sports 2

Qarabag are in 18th after three wins in a surprisingly impressive campaign, which could see them qualify even with defeat at Anfield, which as 22/123.00 underdogs should really be the case, even given how poor Liverpool are at the moment.

The Reds have been far better in Europe though with three clean sheets in four so they should really get this job done.


Man City v Galatasaray

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+ & TNT Sports Extra

That shock defeat at Bodo is the difference between Man City being in third and 11th in a congested table, so they badly need three points and a bit of help elsewhere to make the top eight. Galatasaray's challenge has fallen away with a point in the last three, and they've just one away win in 13 in Europe so I wouldn't expect another City shock from these 11/112.00 outsiders.

City still look a little shaky so don't expect a landslide with Gala keeping things reasonably tight - their last four games have all gone under 3.5 goals.


Read Lewis Jones' match preview & best bets for Man City v Galatasaray


Monaco v Juventus

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

It's three wins on the spin for Juve to move them up to 15th in the table, and one more in Monaco as 11/102.11 favourites could even secure a last-16 spot. The Old Lady's away form isn't the best but Monaco have just two Coupe de France wins to show from their last seven games so they're struggling themselves. Struggling enough to take Juve straight up at odds against.


Napoli v Chelsea

20:00 kick-off
Live on TNT Sports 4 & Discovery+

Napoli have had a bit of a shocker so far and are just outside the top 24 as a result, leaving them as 23/103.30 home underdogs against eight-placed Chelsea, who'll need a win to stand a chance of staying in the automatic spots given how tight it is.

They've not won on the road yet though, drawing at Qarabag and losing at Atalanta but while Napoli are unbeaten at home this is their biggest test. So let's not back unknowns and  instead go with more reliable trends here, like Scott McTominay to be at the heart of everything Napoli do and Moises Caicedo to give away a couple of fouls - as he's done in five of seven in the UCL.


See what Kevin Hatchard is backing in his full match preview for Napoli v Chelsea


Pafos v Slavia Prague

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

Pafos have a slight chance of making the play-offs, but they'll need a win. They've got a great chance too with winless Slavia Prague visiting with nothing to play for. Pafos have beaten Villarreal and drawn with Monaco in their last two home games so have good enough form to suggest they can do a job.


PSG v Newcastle

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+ & TNT Sports 3

There was a big wobble from the champions with a draw against Bilbao and defeat at Sporting in the last two, so PSG need to put things right at home to bag a top eight spot. But the hosts' form that shouldn't scare Newcastle who arrive in Paris level on points with the French side and as lively 9/25.50 underdogs.

Away wins have been hard to come by for Eddie Howe though - just three all season - and PSG have been beaten just twice at home this term. 


Read David Tindall's PSG v Newcastle full match preview


PSV v Bayern

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

PSV are an odd bunch - they've hammered the Italian and English champions 6-2 and 4-1 but conceded three in defeats to Atletico and Newcastle in their last two. Bayern are already assured a top eight spot but after a surprise Bundesliga defeat at the weekend Vincent Kompany will be wanting a response - and an open game with PSV could be just the tonic.

PSV need this more, sitting down in 22nd, but I can't see attacking Bayern at full throttle working out well for them.


Union SG v Atalanta

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

Union SG are one of those strugglers on six points who could in theory make the play-offs with a win but in reality likely have no chance - and three defeats from three at home suggest that even the win part of the equation will be tough to come by.

Not playing at their regular stadium and having to play at Anderlecht's Lotto Park, even though it's only 20 minutes up the road, has obviously been a distraction. Atalanta, with two away wins already, shouldn't have a problem here. 


Now read all the rest of our Champions League match previews and best bets from our experts


Recommended bets

Back Atalanta to beat Union SG @ 6/52.20

Back Dortmund to beat Inter and both teams to score @ 4/15.00

Back Frankfurt v Tottenham draw @ 29/103.90

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