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Back Celtic's Matt O'Riley to bag first at 13/1
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Lazio struggling for cohesion under Sarri
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Limp attacks points to under 2.5 goals
Celtic v Lazio
Wednesday 4 October, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports
Is 'season defining' a little too dramatic when describing the magnitude of this Champions League tie for Celtic? Maybe.
But what is certain is that Brendan Rodgers' side need to make the most of their home advantage if they are to stand any hope of progressing out of Group E, especially after losing 2-0 at Dutch champions Feyenoord.
Can Celtic be trusted at home?
Celtic Park being a fortress on European nights in a football myth.
Not only have the Scottish champions won only one of their last 22 Champions League matches (D5 L16), Celtic are also without a home win in 10 home Champions League group games, losing eight. This record over a pretty big sample size is playing a part in why they are 17/102.70 second favourites in the 1X2 market with Lazio taking up a win ratio of 45 per cent with 6/52.20 on offer for the away win.
While the Scottish champions were going down 2-0 in Feyenoord, where they ended the game with nine-men after red cards to Gustaf Lagerbielke and Odin Thiago Holm, Lazio left it late to salvage a 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid thanks to goalkeeper Ivan Provedel injury-time leveller.
Maurizio Sarri's side finished second in Serie A last season, 16 points behind leaders Napoli, but all that positive momentum has been lost after backing that up with their worst start to a Serie A campaign since 2001. A scrappy 2-0 win over Torino looked to have restored some confidence but they were swept away 2-0 by AC Milan in the San Siro on Saturday, losing the expected goals battle 2.24 to 0.52 in a one-sided affair.
Lazio missing Milinkovic-Savic spark
A low expected goals metric is becoming a common them for a Lazio attack that is lacking rhythm and creativity this season. They have scored just seven goals to a miserly backdrop of just 6.73 expected goals in Serie A, meaning their 0.93 per 90 expected goals average is the sixth worst of any team in the entire league.
It's clear they've yet to find a formula in replacing the attacking output produced by Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, who joined Saudi Arabian club Al-Hilal in the summer.
With Sarri yet to find a solution to get quality service and support to key striker Ciro Immobile, this could be the perfect time for Celtic to make this a night to remember at Celtic Park.
However, I can't trust them though. My punting senses are urging me towards the under 2.5 goals line at 21/202.05 - an odds-against price with cracking potential considering the problems Lazio have in front of goal and lack of overall quality when factoring in the stage within the Celtic forward ranks.
Oh yes for O'Riley goalscorer bet
If Celtic are to take their first three points of the campaign, then ordinarily you'd be looking towards their top scorer domestically in the first goalscorer market. Well, you have to scroll way down the price list to find him as Matt O'Riley - with five goals to his name in the Scottish Premiership - doesn't have the respect he deserves from the odds compilers as they've got him at 13/114.00 to score first.
O'Riley has already surpassed his tally of three Premiership goals of total last season as he's flourished in a forward-thinking role set for him by Rodgers.
And, when assessing his overall attacking data this goal rush is no fluke. No player has had more shots on target (15) or a higher overall expected goals return (3.9) in the league this season whilst only two players have produced more touches in the opposition box (41) than the Celtic star.
These numbers are screaming at him being the key attacking cog in this Celtic side and a player of that make-up, full of confidence from a recent run of goals, shouldn't be a double figure price to score the first goal.