Borussia Dortmund v Sevilla: Counter-attack could prove key

Borussia Dortmund v Sevilla
Tuesday March 9, 20:00
BT Sport

Dortmund defeated in Der Klassiker

Dortmund interim head coach Edin Terzic admitted Die Schwarzgelben didn't deserve to leave Munich with maximum points following BVB's 4-2 defeat to Bayern in Der Klassiker on Saturday. Erling Haaland's early double - the opener after only 74 seconds - had given the visitors a dream start inside the opening 10 minutes before the tables were turned.

Bayern recovered from their sluggish start to level proceedings right on half-time and the table-toppers continued to probe Dortmund throughout the second period, eventually getting their rewards with two more late strikes. Terzic claimed his side "weren't good enough at putting pressure on the ball" as Bayern dominated possession and territory.

Haaland was forced off early with an ankle injury but should be fit enough to feature from the off in Tuesday's tie, whilst Terzic will be hoping to have Giovanni Reyna and Raphael Guerrero back available after missing out on Saturday. Jadon Sancho, Manuel Akanji, Axel Witsel and Marcel Schmelzer are also on Dortmund's lengthy treatment table.

Understrength Sevilla turned over at Elche

Sevilla's concerning negative spiral worsened on Saturday at the Estadio Martinez Valero as Los Nervionenses lost 2-1 to newly-promoted Elche. Raul Guti opened the scoring for the hosts in the 70th minute before Guido Carrillo doubled their advantage six minutes later, with Luuk de Jong's 91st minute strike proving to be nothing more than a consolation.

The defeat is Sevilla's second consecutive loss in La Liga after losing to Barcelona last weekend. But Julen Lopetegui's troops were also turned over by the Catalans in Copa del Rey action on Wednesday evening despite taking a 2-0 advantage into the second leg of the semi-final, and now face an uphill task in Germany to effectively save their season.

Lopetegui did make changes to his preferred XI with Tuesday in-mind. None of Yassine Bono, Aleix Vidal or Jules Kounde travelled after picking up knocks in midweek - all three could return here - whilst first-team regulars Diego Carlos, Suso, Joan Jordan and Youssef En Nesyri should be restored to the team after starting on the bench at Elche.

Spaniards need to score twice

Dortmund were deserved 3-2 winners in the first leg in Spain with Erling Haaland and Jadon Sancho putting on memorable performances as the Bundesliga outfit excelled with a deadly counter-attacking display. With Sevilla having previously lost three of their last four Champions League trips to German opposition, the Spaniards are understandable outsiders.

Dortmund 2.265/4 are unbeaten in their last seven home Champions League contests (W5-D2-L0) and have only lost one of their previous 11 on home soil in the competition. Edin Terzic's charges looking particularly sharp in transitions, the state of the tie should play into the hosts' hands. However, BVB aren't seductive enough to support at their current odds.

Sevilla 3.3512/5 have won their previous two away games in the Champions League but have never progressed in Europe's premier club competition after losing the first leg. The surprise first leg reverse in Spain a fortnight ago has rocked Los Nervionenses, and Julen Lopetegui's side aren't the type of side renowned for running up big scores or chasing key contests, and the guests need to score twice here to stand any chance...

Haaland can make his mark

Goal expectancy always increases for second leg knockout ties. Over the past five Champions League campaigns, Over 2.5 Goals has copped in 29/40 (73%) second leg last-16 ties and so it's understandable to see a repeat of Over 2.5 Goals trading at a rather tight 1.574/7. Seventeen (43%) of those aforementioned 40 fixtures featured four or more goals.

However, instead I'm happy to invest faith in the seemingly unstoppable Erling Haaland making his mark yet again. The Norwegian superstar terrorised Sevilla's backline in Spain and should have opportunities to impress yet again in transitions; with 100 career goals already under his belt, and 18 goals in 13 Champions League appearances, the 1.804/5 on Haaland getting on the scoresheet again is worthy of a wager.