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Bayern facing three-goal deficit
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Haaland chasing van Nistelrooy record
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Guardiola's Tuchel battle
Bayern Munich have the belief that they're capable of mounting a comeback against Manchester City, but it will be a tough ask for Thomas Tuchel's team.
The Premier League champions cruised to a 3-0 victory in the first leg, with Rodri, Bernardo Silva and Erling Haaland on target. It was a forgettable game for the Bundesliga leaders, with a clash between team-mates Sadio Mané and Leroy Sané dominating headlines in the days afterwards.
Bayern missed an opportunity to return to winning ways ahead of the second leg, only managing a draw against Hoffenheim. City, meanwhile, cruised to a 3-1 victory over Leicester with all their goals coming in the opening 45 minutes.
Bad omens
If Bayern want to progress, they'll need to do something no German side has ever achieved. City have never lost a Champions League knockout game against a Bundesliga side, and the last time they tasted defeat to German opposition in any Champions League game came against RB Leipzig last season after they had already topped their group.
Bayern have beaten City three times in the group stages over the years. However, their first-leg loss represented the first time they have lost back-to-back games against the Manchester club.
It was also the third time in a row in which Guardiola has got the better of opposite number Thomas Tuchel. Guardiola's City did the double over Tuchel's Chelsea in last season's Premier League before that first-leg win at the Etihad Stadium.
Those results ought to have laid to rest the ghosts of the 2021 Champions League final. It was there that Tuchel, as Chelsea manager, denied Guardiola his first European title with his current club thanks to Kai Havertz's winner.
Unwanted record
While Bayern will be pushing for a win at the Allianz Arena, there is also a risk they push too hard and consign themselves to their heaviest ever European knockout defeat.
That record stands at the 5-0 reverse suffered against Real Madrid in 2013-14, when Guardiola was Bayern's manager.
That was just one of two occasions on which Bayern have lost both legs of a Champions League knockout game. The other instance was also against Real Madrid, in 2016-17, when a Cristiano Ronaldo-inspired Madrid side won 2-1 in Munich and 4-2 after extra-time at the Bernabeu.
If the hosts are to get anything from the game, they may need Sané to be at his best against his former club.
The German winger has 17 goal involvements in the Champions League since the start of last season, more than any other Bayern player, and he also scored two European knockout goals during his time under Guardiola at City.
Bayern Munich v Manchester City prediction
Even if overturning a three goal deficit is beyond them, Bayern can at least stop their opponents hitting new milestones at their expense.
There might be a small amount of pride in denying Guardiola a 100th victory in the competition, and it probably says a bit about Bayern that one of the only other two to achieve the feat - Carlo Ancelotti - won a number of those games with the Bavarians.
Erling Haaland also has a record in his sights. The Norwegian needs just one more goal to match the 12 scored by Ruud van Nistelrooy 20 years ago, still a record for a Premier League player in one Champions League campaign.
It's not all over, though, and Tuchel may want to direct his players to the successes of Deportivo La Coruña in 2004, Barcelona in 2017, Roma in 2018 and Liverpool in 2019.
Those are the only teams to overturn three-goal first-leg deficits in this competition, though Tuchel's Chelsea also came close to a notable turnaround against Real Madrid last season.
We have our eye on bet builders for this game, with the hosts clawing back some pride. Bayern to win or draw on the night, with Haaland scoring and Sané scoring or assisting can be backed at 6.88147/25.
Recommended bets
Back Bayern to win or draw, Sané to score or assist and Haaland to score @ 6.88147/25Tom's P/L for the 2022/23 Champions League
Staked: 4.00pts
Returned: 2.12pts
P/L: -1.88pts