Man United v Sunderland: Moyes' men unbackable at such short odds and Black Cats can qualify

Manchester United v Sunderland
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Manchester United

After a pretty poor day at the office at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, involving not only defeat but a sending off of one of his most important defenders, David Moyes knows he is under pressure to turn a 2-1 deficit around at Old Trafford on Wednesday evening. It was never going to be easy following Sir Alex Ferguson, and my how a trophy would provide salve to United's wounds.

In front of them are a Sunderland side sitting second bottom of the league but resurgent in this competition. Moyes will have to do without Nemanja Vidic, Wayne Rooney, Robin van Persie, Rio Ferdinand, Marouane Fellaini, Nani and possibly Patrice Evra and will need to tighten up the defensive errors and set piece organisation that cost his side so dear against Chelsea.

Sunderland

Gus Poyet has a bit of the 'cup manager' about him. His Brighton side famously knocked out Newcastle in the FA Cup last season and Sunderland are safely through to the Fourth Round this year. What's more, his team performed admirably in the first leg of this competition against United and have a one goal cushion to bring with them to Old Trafford.

Of concern though will be the listless first half hour they turned in against Southampton at the weekend. Of course, the game eventually finished 2-2 and earned the Black Cats a creditable point, but in patches Sunderland were so bad that it was almost tough to watch. It will be of paramount importance to start strongly on Wednesday night and try to make United feel the pressure they're undoubtedly under.

Poyet will take heart from not only his team's performance in the first leg, but Chelsea's ruthless exploitation of United's defensive mistakes. Sunderland are no Chelsea, but they're certainly good enough to hurt the Red Devils, and if they do, it's difficult to know how United will react.

Match Odds

Manchester United are huge, huge favourites to win this game in 90 minutes and are available to back at just 1.331/3.

The thing is though, United have been better away from home this season, and have picked up more points on the road than they have on their own patch in the league. The list of teams that have won at Old Trafford this term reads Everton, Newcastle, Swansea, Tottenham and West Brom. They're as beatable as they've been for a generation. It is impossible to justify backing the home side at those odds.

However, I'm not sure Sunderland can win inside 90 minutes here, and the market obviously agrees with me. The visitors are available to back at 11.521/2 to win with The Draw at 5.79/2. 

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Stakes are high in this game, and as I've touched on earlier a League Cup triumph would mean a lot more to David Moyes than it perhaps did to his predecessor. Manchester United will be gunning for this trophy and know they need at least two goals if they're going to do it. For that reason, and given their own defensive frailties, this game will be open.

Sunderland are at their best when they're at it too; the first half hour against Southampton was poor and that was because they tried to be reactive and let their opponents dictate the pace of the game. Poyet's remarks afterwards were indicative also; he said that his side can't afford to be passive at Old Trafford. 

For these reasons, Over 3.5 Goals at a chunky 2.89/5 looks the bet.

To Qualify

Although I can't back Sunderland to win the game within 90 minutes, I don't see any reason why they can't qualify for the final. They're 3.1511/5 to do so with United again pretty much unbackable at 1.454/9. The problems and frailties of United are so obvious it's just a ridiculous notion to back the home side at that price.

If Sunderland can get a goal, and I think they can, they can qualify here. Make no mistake about it. 3.1511/5 (which may even lengthen between now and kick off) is a decent bet.

Recommended Bets

Lay United at 1.331/3
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.89/5
Back Sunderland to qualify at 3.1511/5 or bigger