England still in it
Good decision by England to leave their two greatest Test bowlers at home, eh? That really solved their inability to score runs on anything but a wicket masquerading as the M11.
England can't bat. When the ball moves through the air, or off the seam they are found wanting. It was true in the Ashes. It was true last summer against India. And it has been true for some time.
Before tea on day one, England were 114 for eight. Their batting had collapsed in familiar, woeful fashion. Only nine per cent of the deliveries bowled by West Indies would have hit the stumps.
That statistic reveals a particular acute technical and mental failing by England's top order, no matter whom it comprises. Dan Lawrence, by the way, looks a walking wicket whenever the ball so much as winks. May the Lord help him - and England - against crack unit New Zealand in the summer.
Until then, they have a Test to try to win. And believe it or not, they're not in too bad a state. From 67 for seven, it is a remarkable effort to have managed 204. Jack Leach and Saqib Mahmood both showed the batters how it was done.
That or the pitch lost its juice from the afternoon heat. West Indies, reading conditions like a home side should, got it bang on by bowling first and putting aside fears of what the surface might do in the fourth.
Alas they couldn't manage the perfect day. West Indies are 1.991/1, England 3.1511/5 and the draw 6.005/1. Bet the match odds here.
What happens next is dependent on what the surface is like. It sure looked benign when Leach and Mahmood almost negotiated their way to the close. It's a cliché, but hugely relevant: we shouldn't judge the pitch until both sides have batted on it.
West Indies runs are available to back for 250 or more at even money on the exchange. Bet the match odds here.
One suspects, though, that England should enjoy bowling on it, too. And that could mean they're not the worst wager in the world. This could be a 'quick game's a good game' sort of Test. Anything more than 160 or 170 in the fourth dig could be tricky indeed. England can't bat, but they might not need to here.
Kraigg Brathwaite is 11/4 for top Windies bat with Sportsbook. That's an edge of 3.3%. But it's tempting to look lower down the lists given the action on day one.
There's no win-rate value around but Alzarri Joseph catches the eye at 66s. He can give it a tonk if required and is reasonably organised at the crease. We'd like to be considering Jason Holder at 7s but the value on him has long gone.
For England wickets, Kyle Mayers' two wickets, which began England's collapse, could be indicative of what is to come. Similar in style to Ben Stokes, the England all-rounder catches the eye at 4s.
If not him, then Chris Woakes. Woakes can rescue his Test career with a strong performance and the pitch may be the sort he'd like to take back to England with him. He is 10/3. It's a decent price considering he is highly-skilled if there is movement and Leach should not be favourite given the track. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.
Top West Indies bat wins/matches last 3 years