Cricket Betting Tips: In-play angles after day four of West Indies v England

Ed Hawkins
19 March 2022
2:00 min read

Stokes has got to be aggressive

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Ed Hawkins details the last-day scenarios if there is to be a result in Bridgetown on Sunday and finds a player runs bet, too

"Four an over for 30 looks most likely. That would give them just under 60 overs and West Indies a carrot of sorts with a target of 256"

What happens next

On day one a wicket fell every 30 overs and the run rate was 2.72. On day three a wicket fell every 30 overs and the run rate was 2.47. The pitch, then, has been remarkably consistent over a heavy amount of overs.

However, on day four the run rate was down to 1.7 and a wicket fells every 12 overs. In the contest of the match these are significant dips. But in the context of getting a result on a fifth day? Not so much.

For England to force an unlikely victory, the average number of overs required for a wicket needs a dramatic fall given England's safety-first go-slow on Saturday night. Possibly in half as we will explain.

With only 15 overs left in the day England had the opportunity to make a statement. They chose not to and managed a ponderous and dull 2.66 an over for the loss of no wickets.

Permutations and calculations are the order of the day for trying to work out what happens next. It feels like a lot of work when it seems pretty obvious that it's got draw written all over it.

The first Test is something of a blueprint for trying to figure how long England bat for, how many overs they get for an improbable ten wickets and how many they want to 'set' West Indies. In Antigua they had 70 overs and West Indies 286.

They are unlikely to get as many overs nor as many runs. With 90 scheduled for the final day, England will sure have to put their foot down. So it is all about how much they want it.

Setting a target

Four runs an over for 20 overs gives them slightly less than 70 overs and West Indies a target of 216. Way too generous for Joe Root. Four an over for 25 overs gives them slightly less than 65 overs and the hosts a target of 236. Too generous again.

So four an over for 30 looks most likely. That would give them just under 60 overs and West Indies a carrot of sorts with a target of 256.

That puts into context the match odds on the exchange market. England are 9.208/1, West Indies are 48.047/1 and the draw is 1.141/7.

To start getting involved in England's price we have to see aggression. That might be Ben Stokes promoted to No 3. Or Dan Lawrence. That will take a chunk out of the price. Similarly, would the Windies be as big with the latter scenario? Possibly not. But, again, they have to show something. A speculative snip now at those odds in the hope they do just that for a trade isn't the worst idea but be prepared to write it off completely.

In terms of innings runs for England, unfortunately the market agrees with our permutations and calculations. More than 150 is 1.031/33. The runs market is here.

Still, there are other options. Sportsbook pitch Alex Lees runs at over/under 39.5. It could be a short at 10/11.

It's tough on Lees as he looks to establish himself in the Test team that he is going to have to abandon his natural first-class game. He's been reasonably rapid in List A and T20 but this is a different kettle of fish. The Sportsbook markets are here.

Second innings top bat wins/matches
Root 6/30
Stokes 4/23
Crawley 4/15
Woakes 3/14
Lawrence 1/9