Australia v South Africa T20 World Cup Tips: Take on the Aussies and especially Warner

Australia v South Africa
Saturday, 11:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

Two cricketing heavyweights kick off the Super12, albeit a pair both looking to win the T20 World Cup for the first time. Australia lost the 2010 final, whereas South Africa have never made it beyond the semis.

Heavyweight nations look weaker than ever

It isn't obvious why either should improve on those records, given both are probably weaker in this format than ever before. Indeed, neither have ever started the event at bigger odds than this year's respective quotes of 9.08/1 and 16.015/1.

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? Ed Hawkins (@cricketbetting) October 22, 2021

We have all argued on Cricket...Only Bettor for months that Australia are priced on reputation, rather than form or personnel. They've lost 11 out of 15 official T20s during 2021, against Bangladesh, West Indies and New Zealand. Their squad doesn't look at all well equipped for slow pitches in the U.A.E.

Warner should be dropped and must be opposed

In particular, David Warner looks a massive liability. I was surprised he made the squad after a truly terrible IPL and scores of 0 and 1 in the two warm-up matches add further fuel to the theory that he's finished. Especially against high-class pace bowling, which South Africa have in abundance.

Nobody would be surprised if he is excluded here but if he does, 5/6 about Warner scoring Under 21.5 runs is an absolute steal.

With a reshuffle though, it is not implausible that the Aussies contend. Glenn Maxwell was superb during the IPL, while Mitchell Marsh and Josh Inglis could make an impact. Marcus Stoinis and Pat Cummins have power at the death. Steve Smith hasn't got the best strike record of late but note he still top-scored in both warm-ups.

Saffers could be under-rated

Nevertheless, I would much rather back South Africa, both for this match and over the tournament. They come in off seven straight wins, (nine if counting the two warm-ups).

Major doubts about their middle-order persist but nobody boasts a better pace bowling trio than Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi and Anrich Nortje. Quinton de Kock is up there with the very best openers and Rassie van der Dussen signalled his wellbeing and pedigree with a ton in the last warm-up.

Beware toss bias to the chasers

For my money, the pre-match odds are wrong to rate Australia as 1.84/5 favourites, but I'll swerve a bet due to the potential for toss bias. We haven't seen it in the warm-ups but chasers enjoyed a blatant advantage at these grounds towards the end of the IPL. Instead, I'll back South Africa for the tournament at 16.015/1, with a view towards trading out at some stage.

I suspect the par 1st Innings Runs line will start around 150-155. That is probably fair. Here, my plan is to lay Australia to make 160 or more at 1.75/7. If not matched before the start, leave an order to do so in-running.

The two oddsboosts for Top Team Runscorer are Warner to 10/3 and De Kock to 9/4. Obviously given the above comments the former makes no appeal. De Kock is generally very solid in this market but these odds are short enough.

Aussie finishers rate good outsider value

For Australia, try a cheap couple of bets on Matthew Wade at 25/1 and Pat Cummins at 55/1. Both look overpriced, given the high chance of a low total and their potential to be promoted. Even if batting at six down, both are well capable of scoring quick runs at the death.

Also, try Anrich Nortje for man of the match at 16/1. The paceman was really impressive during the IPL and could make hay against the Aussie top-order, especially if Warner is playing.

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