Caribbean Premier League Play-off Tips: Top-bat bets at 40/1 and 75/1

Barbados Tridents v Jamaica Kingsmen CPL Tips

Click here for Barbados Tridents v St Kitts & Nevis Patriots odds
Thursday 17 September 00:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Tridents are the form team in CPL at exactly the right time. They have won four in a row. It is just as well as they face an eliminator against Tridents. If they are to deliver on the promise of early-season form when they won four in a row they will, all games considered, have to have won seven straight to win the title.

It's a tough ask but they should feel confident of clearing the first hurdle. They beat Kingsmen by two wickets off the final ball only four days ago. They also won the head-to-head at the start of the season by five runs. It is no surprise, therefore, that they are favourites. But whether the 1.674/6 is too short on an attritional Bridgetown surface remains to be seen.

The pitch could be described as a leveller. The highest score is 150 in the five first-innings this tournament and we have seen low totals. Guyana were rolled for 99 by Tridents, Patriots for 118 and Tridents themselves for 112. That 150 was actually by Kingsmen and they will be smarting they were unable to defend because in the context of the competition it looked a good score.

A similarly attritional affair should be expected and that strategy provides the best betting angle. Sportsbook's first-innings runs line is far too high at 156.5 and hasn't been chopped in the light of the action we have seen.

With low scores there is often the temptation to bet lower-order batters for a top-bat win with 20 or 30 enough for success. For Tridents Gudekesh Motie retains appeal at 40s while Kingsmen's Hassan Khan could be underrated at 19s. We've won on Motie previously so it would be sore if he won without an interest.

Guyana Amazon Warriors v Trinbago Knight Riders CPL Tips

Click here for Guyana Amazon Warriors v Trinbago Knight Riders odds
Friday 18 September, 01:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

The winner of Guyana-Falcons will go straight to the final. The loser plays-off against the winner of Tridents-Kingsmen.

Guyana are hot favourites to reach their ninth final and attempt to swallow their choker tag. They have lost seven of their eight showpiece matches. Falcons, of course, are a baby franchise by comparison and are in their third season.

The Warriors are no better than 8/131.61 with the Betfair Sportsbook to book their final chance. That is as one would expect given that they topped the table and lost only twice all season. Neither of those defeats came when qualification was in any doubt whatsoever.

But are there cracks to exploit? Tridents beat them on this surface last time out as they struggled against spin. And Falcons won the last head-to-head with a dominant performance at Providence of all places.

There's enough about this Falcons side (our pre-season outright tip by the way at 9s) to reckon they give a good account of themselves. They could well flip the odds on the Exchange.

Still, we don't really need to get bogged down in match winners and trades. The simple strategy is, again, shorting runs. The first-innings line is too high at 162.5 at 5/61.84 with Betfair Sportsbook.

Sticking with the ploy for lower-order top-bat wins, Alzarri Joseph should not be rated at 75/176.00 (he opened up at 100/1101.00!) on ability to top score for Falcons. It is worth a sensible stake.

Bookmark Betting.Betfair for cricket tips on all the big games