The Hundred Tips Matches 24 and 25: Gamble on 35/1 Dawson for top bat win

• Oval expected to dominate again

• Look for 1.804/5 value in-play
• Rashid Khan may not play final
• Lord's pitch stodgy for sixes

• Dawson worth a risk at 35s

Northern Superchargers v Oval Invincibles
Saturday 23 August, 14:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Northern Superchargers v Oval Invincibles - The Hundred Tips

Can anyone stop Oval Invincibles? That is the question after the holders produced a stunning turnaround to down Trent Rockets, the only team which had hitherto been able to hold a candle to the side eyeing a historic franchise three-peat.

But their hopes of matching Oval were snuffed out in brutal fashion by Jordan Cox and Sam Curran. It was the sort of win which may well have left every other team in the competition feeling as deflated as Rockets. This lot are good. They are now strolling to a first-placed finish and automatic qualification for the final.

If there is a weakness, it is in the field. Rockets and Birmingham Phoenix have got hold of this attack. It is why they are desperately trying to negotiate a deal to keep Rashid Khan for the duration instead of him leaving for the Asia Cup with Afghanistan due to play their first match on September 9. He is apparently required for a pre-tournament camp.

We fully expect Oval to take the points in Leeds. As does the match odds market which has them no better than 1.564/7. Our immediate thought is that a Northern batting unit which needs a flat pitch could take a bite out of that price. But not because of some hidden ability that they can take down Oval. In first innings, for 20 or so balls, Oval could come under attack. Just as they did versus Rockets. It could be a forlorn hope but keeping everything crossed for 1.804/5 Oval in-play and then getting involved is the strategy.

Sportsbook have Oval total match runs in at 153.5. We might expect a similar line on the Betfair Exchange if they were to bat first and that looks like a buy. The Headingley pitch is a cracker and we suspect it has made Superchargers look better than they are against Phoenix for example. Both teams are 8/52.60 to reach 150. 

Superchargers have lost Mitch Santner to injury and he has been replaced by Samit Patel. It is not like for like. It would not be a surprise if Superchargers' lack of nuance and nous eventually cost them.  Sam Curran is 7/52.40 to take a wicket and hit a six in the match. he has taken a wicket in four of the games so far and hit a six in three of his five innings. 

London Spirit v Southern Brave - The Hundred Tips

London Spirit v Northern Superchargers
Saturday 23 August, 18:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Southern Brave snapped a three-game losing streak in the nick of time against Welsh Fire. It was far too close for comfort, though, and it went to the wire. They are probably going to have to win both of their remaining matches to be in with a chance of making the top three. With Fire their last game they may have to target boosts on net run rate.

Spirit are almost certainly done. Successive defeats have cost them any hope of an unlikely comeback into the play-off reckoning. They were outclassed by Northern Superchargers last time out, losing by eight wickets.

The home team's batting is dreadful. They lost only three wickets in that game but could still only manage to post 135, way below par. It has been written ad infinitum but Kane Williamson is a major problem in this format given his low scoring. Only Jamie Smith in the four can be relied upon to be scoring at the required rate. On that basis Smith isn't the worst bet at 11/43.75 to top score for Spirit. 

By the same logic, Liam Dawson could also be worth a small-stake interest at 35/136.00. He has wins in this format before and it is entirely plausible that a 30-odd could win it.

It is true that a stodgy Lord's pitch does not make it easier for batters. Or spectators come to think of it. The first thought is to get against sixes. Spirit have an average of 2.8 per game this season.  Brave are averaging 3.8. This combined with the difficult nature of the track makes for a rational wager at under 10.5 at 5/61.84. 

Brave need more from James Vince, who had a shocker of a season. he started the tournament with a top-three win-rate on top bat but he is yet to win. The 5/23.50 is not huge value, though. 

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