Ed Hawkins marks your card for bets at 7/2, 4/1 and 14/1 for The Hundred clash from Southampton on Saturday
Southern Brave v Northern Superchargers
Saturday 7 August 19.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Brave need win
Southern Brave were frustrated by the rain at Old Trafford on Thursday night. It means they have five points from five games and although their hopes of a top-three spot are far from over, defeat here will put them in a perilous position with one to play.
Whether they were grateful for the rain against Manchester Originals or not they will probably not let on. One suspects they were. Originals were 98 for three and Brave were in danger of chasing at least 140.
Their balance is all over the shop. Devon Conway has been replaced by Paul Stirling, meaning they have four specialist openers in the top four - De Kock, Vince, Davies and Stirling. They are still playing Colin de Grandhomme despite shocking figures. And Danny Briggs would have been raging to see Stirling asked to bowl.
Probable XI Banton, Cobb, Duckett, Philipps, Du Plooy, Critchley, Neesham, Higgins, Qais, Payne, Milnes
Superchargers are bang in the hunt for qualification. But they can ill-afford any more mishaps with personnel because their squad is stretched to the limit.
Ben Stokes, obviously, is not involved and Faf Du Plessis has concussion. Dane Vilas has been signed to add batting ballast. But the truth is they have a core of four players who are doing much of the heavy lifting. Harry Brook is a superstar, David Willey a class act while Adil Rashid and Mujeeb-ur-Rahmann have been the perfect spin pairing. Unsurprisingly, Superchargers are tight in the field.
The work that needs to be done is with the opening pair Adam Lyth and Chris Lynn. They have been out of nick and ponderous, particularly Lynn who is striking at 102.
Possible XI Lyth, Lynn, Brook, Willey, Vilas, Simpson, Raine, Carse, Potts, Rashid, Mujeeb.
The Ageas Bowl has hosted just the one match so far. Birmingham Phoenix posted 151 which is way above the average in terms of T20 economy and RPB rates. And way above the average for the tournament too. And that's good because as punters we're more prone to go overs on the runs par line. Backing 150 or 160 or more is a risky but potentially rewarding wager. The latter may well be available at 3.505/2. As for the toss, we would prefer to be wagering on Superchargers because their batting is one of the fastest around while the Brave bowling is the second-most expensive.
The Hundred data
Batting 1st average score 138
RBP average 1.39
RBP average batting 2nd 1.40
145 or more 7/15
Powerplay average 32.2
Powerplay ave batting 1st 30.6
Powerplay average batting 2nd 33.9
Favourite wins 10/15
Chaser wins 9/15
The market can't split these two. Both are available at the 1.9210/11 mark. We;'re inclined to believe that Superchargers should be narrow favourites but recognise the pull of Brave stars like Quinton de Kock, James Vince and Tymal Mills. Mills, by the way, senses his chance for a spot in England's World T20 squad after Jofra Archer was ruled out for the season.
Brave are dangerous in that powerplay batting first. So the shrewd move may be to wait and play Superchargers are a bigger price in-play. Around 2.206/5 could be available with a rapid start, although don't be surprised if the visitors go after De Kock early with that dual spin attack.
De Kock has been boosted to 5/2 for top Brave bat. The South African is without a score of note but he's been seeing it well - a strike rate of 204. Could this be his time? Well, against Rashid and Mujeeb his data looks like this...
De Kock v Rashid
T20 - 27 runs, SR 146, 0 outs
ODI 96 runs, SR 104, 2 outs
De Kock v Mujeeb
T20 - 11 runs, SR 64, 1 out
So it is clear who Superchargers should target him with. It could be the 5/2 wager hinges on that battle. Unlike De Kock, Vince relished Mujeeb's bowling and he has tucked in against the tweaker in the past. He is 23/10. De Kock and Vince are 7/2 and 4/1 respectively for top match bat.
Sportsbook have made a mistake with Willey's price for top Superchargers bat. There is no way he is 14/1 with the scintillating form he is in and his batting position.
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