Manchester Originals v London Spirit: Morgan's men in a spin

Eoin Morgan
Morgan and Spirit have disappointed

Ed Hawkins previews Tuesday's action in The Hundred with all eyes on the Old Trafford pitch

"Spirit’s top three is destructive and they might be capable of slashing their way to a price reduction"

Back Originals in-play batting second 1.9010/11

Manchester Originals v London Spirit
Tuesday 10 August 18.30
TV: live on Sky Sports

Originals need Parkinson

The Originals are a fancy for title glory because of their ability to bowl 80 balls of quality spin. But it does require them returning Matt Parkinson to the side. Parkinson was left out of the team which faced the Southern Brave in a contest ruined by rain.

Parkinson's absence allowed them to pick an extra batter. And that might make sense considering Colin Ackermann, the all-rounder who can bowl tweak, is available again after injury. Lockie Ferguson and Steven Finn as a pace pair has international-quality stamped through it.

Sam Hain, Tom Lammonby and Carlos Brathwaite are possibly the most destructive Nos 5-6-7 axis in the tournament, although we have doubts whether the West Indian can get after spin. It would be a controversial call but we'd rather Parky play than him.

Possible XI Salt, Clarke, Munro, Colin Ackerman, Hain, Lammonby, Brathwaite, Harrison, Hartley, Ferguson, Finn

Spirit shocking

London Spirit are yet to win a game in four attempts with one washout. It is a particularly poor return considering they have chased three times in a tournament with a 63% toss bias for the team batting second.

If they had shown more nous and courage it is not a stretch to say they could have had three wins. Against Birmingham Phoenix in their opener they would have probably squeezed Phoenix in the chase with an extra spinner, Mason Crane. Crane is now a fixture.

But against Brave and Trent Rockets they lost their nerve in what were gettable targets by competition standards. Eoin Morgan's reputation as a street-smart leader has taken a bit of a hit. Coach Shane Warne has been absent because he tested positive for Covid.

Possible XI Rossington, Inglis, Reece, Denly, Morgan, Nabi, Bopara, van der Merwe, Cullen, Amir, Crane

Pitch report

Old Trafford has an infamous reputation despite actually completing only one game. Birmingham were razed by spin for just 87, prompting Ben Stokes to call the pitch "horrific". Matches against the Superchargers and Brave were washed out. There was time in the latter to have a look at the surface. Originals were going well at 1.38 per over but spin was mean again with the three Brave tweakers all going for under the one rate. With the tournament average score of 137 in mind, it's not risky to go under the par line which is likely to be set in the low 140s. No rain is forecast.

The Hundred data
Batting 1st average score 137
RBP average 1.40
RBP average batting 2nd 1.46
145 or more 8/18
Powerplay average 33.7
Powerplay ave batting 1st 31.2
Powerplay average batting 2nd 36.2
Favourite wins 12/19
Chaser wins 12/19

Be patient with Originals price

Originals are 1.774/5 with Spirit 2.245/4. Those prices are fair and what we expected them to be. We think Originals should have too much spin quality for Spirit, who came unstuck horribly against turn when beaten by Rockets.

But obviously 1.774/5 is not the sort of price we play at. So we're going to hope to get with them in-play, perhaps in the chase. Spirit's top three is destructive and they might be capable of slashing their way to a price reduction. Keep your fingers crossed for 1.9010/11 Originals before spin takes hold.

Tops value

Luis Reece has had to bide his time before getting a chance for Spirit so we're tempted by the 4/1 that he top-bats for them. With the pitch expected to take turn, Reece has batted twice at Old Trafford in T20 and got scores, striking at 138. So he has the feelgood vibe. For Originals Hain looks chunky at 9/1 and Lammonby likewise at 13s. Crane and Roelof van der Merwe have appeal at 10/3 and 4/1 respectively for top Spirit wicket-taker.

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Ed Hawkins P-L

2021: +2.50
2020: +5.91
2019: +37.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye column p-l

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