England v Australia Third Ashes Test Day Two In-Play Tips: England marginal jollies

• Contest evenly poised

• Wood pace maybe gives Englasnd edge

• Bairstow a worry for hosts

England v Australia
Friday 7 July, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

How to play third Test match odds

England took a giant leap towards keeping the series alive with a comeback performance inspired by the electrifying pace of Mark Wood on day one.

CLosing on 68 for three, 195 behind Australia, England face a battle for supremacy. It was a thrilling day, summed up the fact that two can barely be separated on the match odds.

England are marginal 2.206/5 favourites with Australia 2.245/4. The draw is 9.4017/2, a potential nback-to-lay because of some poor weather forecast for day two.

Traditional seam and swing had put the hosts in charge when Australia were reduced to 85 for four at lunch, appearing to vindicate Ben Stokes's punchy decision to bowl first under skies where the sun was engaged in a wrestle with grey clouds.

But then Mitch Marsh hit back. Dropped on nine by Joe Root and surviving a lbw shout, he made the most of his fortune and blistered 118 off as many balls as the Australian price collapsed to odds-on.

Marsh made a ton, effectively, in less time than the tea session and with Ollie Robinson off the pitch with a back spasm England appeared to be drifting perilously close to the brink.

Enter Wood, who cranked up to almost 97mph. Wood blew away the Aussie tail as they lost four wickets for nine in 29 balls. It was notable, in particular, how Alex Carey and Pat Cummins didn't fancy the speed. Wood claimed five and top bowler honours.

There was confusion on the match odds market post-toss. England were made favourites after Stokes put Australia in, and then they drifted to significant outsiders as doubts about whether it was the right call surfaced.

They always say 'look up, not down' at Leeds and punters were following the rules. The only problem was the patchy sky. When the sun broke out up shortened the Aussies. When it was taken over by the clouds back in came England.

It is set up for a thrilling four days. England may reckon they just about have their noses in front, largely because of the way the Headingley pitch has a tendency to get better for batting. They must bat last on this surface and they will cling to the Stokes epic of 2019 and West Indies chase of 322 for solace.

England first-innings runs

There has been much hype and nonsense spoken and written about Bazball in this contest. It is perhaps best to stick fingers in the ears. No 'style' of play is likely to prove decisive, not least because when they have had to, Australia have matched those heady run rates set by England previously.

No. What will be key is the preparedness and professionalism of the two teams. And in that respect it has to be said that England have been found wanting.

On day one at Leeds they dropped Steve Smith, Travis Head and, crucially, Mitch Marsh. It took the tally of their shells to an eyewatering 14 in the series. Throw in the missed stumping from Jonny Bairstow at Edgbaston, the two no-balls (Stuart Broad in game one and Ben Stokes in game two) and the extras England have been, frankly, a disaster. It has made them unbackable at odds of under 3.002/1.

One is loathe to quote the ridiculous punditry of Glenn McGrath but he called them purveyors of CasBall, ie Casual Ball. He's not wrong.

Before this series it was noted that England, when they lose an Ashes series, commission an expensive review to be undertaken by someone (ordinarily with a title), who advises a revamp of the county season and various other changes which often mean people lose a job.

And yet when it comes to actually getting ready for the big event, they are not ready. The lack of red-ball preparation is a scandal.

Jonny Bairstow a case in point. He looks unfit, his feet movement is non-existent behind the stumps and he's hardly tuned in.

To that end, Bairstow's runs could well be a short with Sportsbook. You can go under at 29.5 at 10/11. With the ball still shaping a tricky first session is on the cards.

Once that shape goes, however, England should bust their par line in the low 300s. This does look a terrifically quick and flat pitch. And Australia don't have the speed of Wood to change the game.

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