England v Australia Third Ashes Test Day Three In-play Tips: Market chaos incoming

• England still slight favourites

• Weather could spoil day three

• Brook runs a short

England v Australia
Saturday 8 July, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

How to play third Test match odds

England and Australia ended day three almost neck and neck after another entertaining battle. The hosts are 2.245/4, the visitors are 2.285/4.

The market is not far off from where it started. Australia's lead of 142 with six wickets in hand is perilous for both teams. An hour of Mitchell Marsh will see the Aussie price collapse. But England will reckon they have the tools to break open the innings.

And that means a rested Mark Wood, who was managed well despite Ollie Robinson being unable to bowl, having a crack when they get back onto the field (more on that below).

In the first-innings Australia lost six for 23 to collapse. We wrote in the day two preview that it was important to note that both Alex Carey and Pat Cummins did not fancy the pace of Wood.

England are one wicket away from something similar. They will be grateful that both Marsh and Travis Head have to start from scratch.

The innings par line may well have the feel of a sell at 254.5 as a result. Wood's ability to mop up the tail is vital.

His ability with the bat isn't too shabby, either. Australia were dominant when he came to the crease. A blistering 24 off eight balls set the tone for England to hit back from 142 for seven.

Ben Stokes, of course, then did what Ben Stokes does as his own attack ensured England reached 237. They keep hitting back..Despite the drops (now 15) and the braindead shots (Jonny Bairstow, Moeen Ali, Chris Woakes this time) they've got guts.

We expect more flips and flops on the market throughout the remaining action. Australia got into the 1.608/13 region and one can certainly see them going odds-on again. But so too may England.

Laying the skinny prices is a shrewd move with the Headingley track keeping batters and bowlers honest.

Lay the draw

It's not out of the question that a signiicant chunk of overs are lost on day three. The forecast is poor.

From the start time until tea there is never less than a 50% chance of rain. With grim and gloomy TV pictures beamed around the world there should be a dive in the draw price.

Currently it is 8.4015/2. It could well get chopped in half. Panic is never far away when the stalemate is concerned and the chances of a draw are routinely overstated.

If we can lay at around the 4.507/2 mark we will do so. Even with a washout on day three it would be a surprise if this Test made it past lunch on day five.

Back under H Brook 2nd inns runs

There have been big scores chased in Leeds in recent years. West Indies' 322, England 296 against India and the Stokes epic in 2019 when 359 wasn't enough.

England will be confident, then. Be wary, though. As much as the wicket looks true and quick, batters have struggled. It could be that Australia will be bang in the game with a target set of 230-250.

To that end, we're eyeing a short of Harry Brook's runs when he does get to the crease. Going under 29.5 was available in the first dig and he should be nowhere near batting first down. If he returns to the middle-order then swerve it.