England v Australia Second Ashes Test Tips: Back England to hit back at HQ

• England primed for comeback

• Lord's pitch could be tricky to bat on

• Weather forecast keeps draw low

England v Australia
Wednesday 27 June, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England team news

England delayed naming their XI. And when they did it was a surprise.

With Moeen ALi considered unfit to bowl, Mark Wood looked certain to come in and play. But instead the free slot went to Josh Tongue with Joe Root likely to be asked to be the spinner.

Mark Wood may be struggling with an elbow problem and his participation in the series now looks doubtful. Long term it's not good for the hosts.

Short-term, however, the picture is decent. With a green surface expected the Anderson-Broad-Robinson axis looks ideal. Tongue can be used as a shock bowler and be asked to bowl quick, short spells.

Possible XI: Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Bairstow, Robinson, Broad, Anderson, Tongue

Australia team news

Australia are 1-0 up and buzzing after their extraordinary comeback in Birmingham. There will be a strong temptation to stick with the winning formula, not to mention the negative tactics in first-innings.

Scott Boland does look vulnerable, though, to losing his spot to Mitchell Starc. While the Aussies have called Ollie Robinson a 'clubbie' and 'forgettable cricketer', it is worth noting Boland's figures of 1-86 and 1-61. It could be diversion tactics.

Starc's left-armers offer a point of difference and Australia may reckon that giving England another opportunity to smash Boland is a risk.

Probable XI: Khawaja, Warner, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Green, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Lyon, Hazlewood

Lord's pitch report

The picture of the green wicket that has been circulating would certainly be in keeping with recent history. Lord's has been one for the bowlers.

In 15 first-class matches this summer, there have been only three all-out scores of more than 300. England's 525 versus Ireland earlier this summer was only the second score of 400 or more in 11 Tests.

The weather forecast will also be good news for swing bowlers. Conditions are overcast for the first four days with the final day, if it gets that far, to be played in perfect sunshine.

Fall of first wicket for the team batting first - if skies are leaden - is a great ploy. England and Australia can be shorted at 26.5 and 25.5 respectively at 5/61.84 with Sportsbook.

As for first-innings par lines we'd be keen to be shorting numbers in the 352.5 region for England and Australia. This may not be the featherbed that we saw in Birmingham.

How to play second Test match odds

And that is great news for England's bowlers. A green surface with overcast conditions may be anathema to the Australians. That combination giving rise to swing is the main reason why they have not won a series in the country for 22 years.

England are considered the least likely winners at 2.6813/8 and it is hard not to reckon that is value. If Edgbaston proved anything there is very little to choose between these two.

We were on Australia for that first Test because England were underprepared. That could have been the reason why crucial no-balls and dropped catches at the wicket gave Australia a sniff when they should have been long beaten.

Australia were cautious and negative. England were gung-ho. We expect exactly the same and the latter, now more honed, approach may be smarter on a trickier surface.

The draw price will be of significant interest thanks to the forecast. We could well see it shorten from 5.509/2 before the off as a result. As ever we will be laying in-play anything close to 3.505/2 and below.

First-innings top bat

Given the pitch data, the pitch itself and the weather forecast one has to be alive to the prospect that a 40 or 50 could win top first-innings bat markets. Big prices, therefore, need to be considered.

For England, Sportsbook's 15/28.50 the pair about Ben Stokes and Jonny Bairstow have appeal, protected as they are from the new ball. Moeen is not out of it, either, at 16/117.00. Pat Cummins is in great nick with the bat and the 40/141.00 is surely too big. Alex Carey at 14/115.00 and Cameron Green at 9/110.00 may also have a big say.

*Read Ed Hawkins' best player bets for the 2nd Test here

Player of the series

It's early days in this Ashes series but it clear the two skips are going to have a huge say in its outcome. For that reason Cummins and Stokes are worthy of support at 7/18.00 and 20/121.00 respectively with Sportsbook on this market.

Cummins may already have one hand on the gong. His all-round effort at Edgbaston was one for the ages. And England are sycophantically in awe of the man if the recent BBC love-in was anything to go by.

Australia have grudging admiration for Stokes. He's taking huge wickets with the ball, his aggressive style in the field and a decent knock here or there will mean he is bang in the race. WHichever captain wins the series is a huge runner.

Read Ian Bell on England and who wins the second Test here

Watch our second Test preview with Ian Bell here!