England v Australia Fourth Ashes Test In-Play Tips: England to put their foot down

• England to be aggressive on day two

• Australia happy to grind

• Stokes key with bat

England v Australia
Thursday 20 July, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Draw price to lengthen

It couldn't be tighter after day one at Old Trafford with Australia closing on 299 for eight. There is but a smidge between three outcomes - England are 3.309/4, Australia 2.707/4 and the draw 3.02/1.

If all was fair in love and war it was undoubtedly England's day. They hung in there and bowled with exceptional skill and nous to keep on pinching Australian wickets.

The problem, however, is the context of the series. England have to win and with the rain forecast for days four and five expected to be crucial, the home team are already running out of time. But that's if the meterologists are correct.

In that regard the match odds market is cautious. If the cloud watchers were guaranteed to be right then the stalemate would be much skinnier, probably favourite. Indeed, our in-play blog spent much of the first day musing that it should have been jolly, particularly when Australia were in command.

With Marnus Labuschagne and Travis Head locking on to cruise control, Australia had the urn in their pocket at 183 for three. They don't need to win and their team selection suggested their first task was to ensure they didn't lose.

Dropping spinner Todd Murphy for the extra batting of Cameron Green was safety-first. It doesn't matter for them that Moeen Ali was extracting decent turn, Australia reckon they won't need to push for victory in the fourth innings through spin.

This caution didn't transfer to their batting. If anything, they were guilty of carelessness. David Warner, Steve Smith, Labuschagne, Travis Head and Mitch Marsh all got starts and the opportunity to bat England out of the series. None took it.

Back under England 1st inns runs

What happens next? Well, expect an attempt at fast-scoring when England bat. They will surely look to score at around five an over to try to advance the match before that potential rain arrives.

That means the draw price is likely to drift. Either England rattle along or their aggression brings wickets. Secondly, we'd be keen to short England runs if the line opens up at around that 345 mark.

It is not beyond the realms of possibility that England declare at around that figure if all goes to plan. A late-session dart at Australia on day two would fit with their stated intent. A short also keeps Australia's bowlers on side.

Top England 1st ins runscorer

A gung-ho appraoch makes Ben Stokes increasingly good value at 13/2] for top England first-innings runscorer with Sportsbook.

His ability to go big quickly gives him the edge over Joe Root, despite them having almost identical avetrages in the first dig at this ground.

Top England first-innings bat wins/matches under Stokes
Brook 4/9
Bairstow 2/9
Root 2/15
Stokes 2/16
Crawley 1/16
Duckett 1/8

*Don't miss Ed Hawkins' in-play advice on day two here