England v Australia Fifth Ashes Test Tips: Hosts can pinch series leveller

• England favourites to level series

• Keep eye on weather forecast

• Head has ground form

England v Australia
Thursday 27 July, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England Fifth Ashes Test team news

England were expected to shuffle their pack for a third must-win encounter. The Ashes have gone but the series hasn't. A 2-2 draw would be a good result after losing the first two Tests.

The conundrum was simple for the hosts: is Mark Wood fit enough for three games in a row? If not, one from Josh Tongue or Ollie Robinson comes in. Ws Stuart broad leggy? Surely the ineffective James Anderson doesn't play?

But this England side are far from predictable. in the end they've gone with exactly the same XI from old Trafford. The one which looked flat and devois of ideas in 71 overs in the fourth innings? yes, that one.

Possible XI: Crawley, Duckett, Moeen, Root, Brook, Stokes, Bairstow, Woakes, Wood, Broad, Anderson

Australia Fifth Ashes Test team news

Australia have issues to solve. David Warner's poor form - or decline - shows no sign of abating. They must surely find room for spinner Todd Murphy.

It could be a straight swap with Travis Head or Mitch Marsh moving up to open. If Warner clings on, then Cameron Green is expected to make way for Murphy.

Pat Cummins looked exhausted at Old Trafford and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if he pulled up injured for this one. Mitchell Starc also looked as though he was struggling. Scott Boland or Michael Neser could get a game. Neser's batting power may swing it.

Possible XI: Warner, Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Marsh, Carey, Cummins, Neser, Hazlewood, Murphy

The Oval Fifth Ashes Test pitch report

You will hear a lot about The Oval being one of the best batting tracks in the country. It is not remotely true according to recent numbers. In 15 all out scores in Divison One of the Championship this season, only six came in more than 300. In the last five Tests there have been only five all out scores of 350 or more in all innings.

Trent Bridge, Old Trafford, the Ageas Bowl and Edgbaston all have higher batting averages per wicket in the last ten years (six Tests or more) than The Oval .

Australia made 469 batting first against India earlier in the summer, but with overcast conditions it would be far from surprising if we saw a repeat of the 2022 Test when England and South Africa couldn't muster more than 169 between them. Going unders on par lines at around 340.5 in the first dig is solid while bigger numbers on the innings runs markets, say 3.002/1 about 275, may be an option.

Fifth Ashes Test match odds

England are 2.506/4, Australia 2.8415/8 and the draw 3.953/1. It is the latter price which is moving the market as suggestions swirl that we're in for another wet contest.

Among the many things we learned from Old Trafford, however, was the Accuweather.com was the more reliable source and its forecast is far from grim. It would be a major surprise if days with the odd shower here and there led to enough overs being lost to deny a result. Any chance to lay the draw at sub 3.505/2 before the off is likely to be snapped up.

That leaves a straight shootout between two well-matched teams. And the drift in England's price probably swings it for us. It cannot be forgotten how dominate England were in Manchester and the shellacking Australia's bowlers took should be of significant concern.

England's surge can probably be explained by a greater bowling depth while Australia have begun to creak having been on the go for, essentially, five Tests backot-back. A sixth is arduous.

It is true that with both teams likely to field jaded XIs that the formbook may be upset but that's the risk we take with England. For the last two games they have been on top and they are probably the value to make it count.

Fifth Ashes Test player bets

Travis Head, who made 163 in the WTC Final on this ground, is 9/25.50 with Betfair Sportsbook to top score for Australia in first-innings again. Steve Smith, who also got a century in that dig, is 11/43.75.

Destroyer-in-chief Zak Crawley gets a 5/16.00 quote for England while Joe Root is boosted to 3/14.00.

With the ball, Chris Woakes stands out at 7/24.50 for top bowler in the first innings for England because at least one of the bowlers ahead of him in the betting may not play. Similarly Josh Hazlewood is finding his range at 16/54.20 for Australia.

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