England v Australia First Ashes Test Tips: Aussies to draw first blood

• Australia favourites for 1-0 and look a good bet

• Pitch tricky to call however

• Whatever the weather the draw looks a lay

England v Australia
Friday 16 June, 11:00
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

England have named their XI already, probably to display absolute confidence and to try to rile Australia a little. But it is a surprising selection. There is no Mark Wood.

Instead England have gone for the samey pace attack of James Anderson, Stuart Broad and Ollie Robinson. With no Wood they don't boast a bowler who can give Australia the hurry up or look to smash open a partnership if the wicket has got road-like.

Moeen Ali, out of retirement and who averages 65 against the Aussies, will be charged with bowling spin. Ben Stokes, a pick for top England series bat, has bowled in training but that is no substitute for actual game time so the jury is out.

Named XI: Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Bairstow, Moeen, Robinson, Broad, Anderson

Australia's selection 'dilemma' is whether to stick with Scott Boland or bring back Josh Hazlewood. It would be bizarre if they went with the latter option.

Boland was superb against India in the WTC Final and there is no need to risk Hazlewood, who is working his way back to fitness.

As if to illustrate the size of England's task the ICC updated their batting rankings on the eve of the clash. Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith and Travis Head occupy the first three positions.

Probable XI: Warner, Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Green, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Lyon, Boland

Edgbaston pitch report

The Edgbaston pitch has been one for the bowlers in the last five years - there have been only three all-out scores of more than 303. And England's selection suggests they expect seam and swing rather than a flat one.

It has been bowler-friendly in the Championship this term. In eight all-out scores the highest score was 281 and four of those were under 159. As ever there are caveats.

England chased 378 in the fourth against India last year and Warwickshire made 453-4d in the very first dig of this season.

It is a wait-and-see approach on par lines but one suspects Australia will be a buy if a couple of early wickets go down and the new ball loses its lustre as discussed here in our in-play guide.

How to play the Ashes first Test odds

Australia are favourites to do what they did at Edgbaston in 2019- win and take a 1-0 lead. They are 2.427/5 with England 2.6813/8 and the draw at 4.507/2 on the match odds market.

The first price of interest is the stalemate. It is very short on first glance and, hey presto, there's a bit of rain predicted on the last three days. We're chomping at the bit to lay in-play once we've had a look at the surface.

Otherwise Australia look and feel like value. They are perfectly tuned up after hammering India. England are not. They have a spinner, England do not. We do expect a close series with plenty of twists and turns. It just could well be that once England get Stokes fit and Wood into the team they finish strongly while that WTC Final may eventually take its toll.

Currently England just haven't done the required preparation with key batters and bowlers missing crucial game time. Australia have superior batting and bowling strike rates on the match-ups so really should get their noses in front.

Tops value - best batsmen bets for first Test

Smith got two tons on this ground in 2019 and is 13/53.60 with Betfair Sportsbook for top Aussie bat in the first dig. He is 6/52.20 and 4/15.00 respectively for a 50 and ton in the first innings. Lanbuschagne and Head are 7/24.50 and 4/15.00 respectively for top first-innings bat.

For England, Root is boosted to 3/14.00 and is [9/2] for a century in the first-innings. Ollie Pope has contracted sharply closer to his ability now at [3/1] for top England bat.

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