Ashes Series In-play Betting Guide: How to bet Bazball on the Betfair Exchange

• Stalemates in short supply

• Openers could struggle

• Take big prices on England

Lay the draw

Of the 24 matches that have been played at the five venues for this Ashes series in the last five years, there have been zero draws. The stalemate is almost extinct. And yet it is not reflected in the prices, particularly in-play.

Despite the draw being rarer than an Aussie without hubris, there remain golden opportunities to bet against the draw at cheap numbers.

In the World Test Championship final the market remained enthral to the draw even though Australia, with a massive first-innings score under their belt, clearly winning the game. Three times we advised laying the draw in-play from 2.206/5 up to 4.003/1.

Twas ever thus. A big first-innings score often means that the market assumes that both teams will go long. Of course, sometimes that is the case and this is where England's bravado comes in.

The draw is a dirty word in the McCullum-Stokes lexicon. They avoid it like Covid and have shown a persistent willingness to put time back into the game. They will do so again. Laying the draw from, say, 1.608/13 to 5.004/1 should be the only strategy you need this series.

A new-ball series

A sizzling hot UK summer is expected. That should mean we have fast, hard and bouncy pitches. Just like Ben Stokes ordered. If so, the new ball will be crucial for early wickets.

The Australia-India WTC Final was instructive as to how the summer could play out. New-ball batting was tricky but once the ball got soft and the sun got high batsmen looked comfortable.

We will, naturally, wait to see with our eyes what is happening off the surface but it is worth preparing for going long of runs if a couple of early wickets have fallen for either team. After 15 overs or on these types of surfaces going long of the par line on innings runs could be profitable.

The likes of Joe Root, Harry Brook and Ben Stokes for England and Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith and Travis Head could be batting on featherbeds.
A time to manage your position will come and that may be the second new ball. At five or six down for either team, particularly England given Australia's pedigree at mopping up the tail, we may switch and be sellers.

Listen to our Ultimate Ashes betting guide here

A new-ball series

Openers, then, could have a much tougher time with a hard cherry and fresher conditions. The pairs on either side appear to be particularly vulnerable. Shorting the fall of the first wicket and selling individual runs are ones for the notebook.

First off there's Zak Crawley. Crawley is a likeable sort who will try to give it a biff. But there's insecurity in his mindset, claiming he's not interested in folks' opinions on his technique. That's not surprising because he doesn't have much of one.

It would be hugely surprising - and a credit to Crawley - if somehow the Holy Trinity of Cummins-Starc-Boland do not expose him time and time again. The poor chap averages only 28 in Tests and 30 in first-class.

His partner Ben Duckett has had an easy time of it in his fledgling Test career and this is a serious examinaton for the southpaw. We don't expect big runs
As for the Aussies, David Warner and Usman Khawaja have flaws. Warner in particular.

Look out for his back foot going to leg against pace early on. It's a sure sign he's out of touch. Or just rely on Stuart Broad (he's nabbed him 14 times) to get him out. Khawaja has a sensational record since returning to the team in the last Ashes. But in England he averages just 17 in seven innings.

How to bet Bazball

The whole world is on a steep learning curve when it comes to the brand of cricket England are playing. Having been schooled on studious and stodgy batters and run rates under three, Test punters are not sure what to make of it.

The trick is to take big England prices and to bet the unexpected. The traditional teachings of Tests of yore will mean that you can be forgiven for thinking England are way behind the game when, in fact, crash, bang and wallop they're back in it.

Specifically we're talking about how they bat. Rapidly they can move to parity and the match odds market can struggle to wake up. We're happy to be placing units in first-innings on England, expectant that the likes of Mitchell Starc, Cameron Green and Nathan Lyon will be targeted for tap.

As for later in the game, be prepared for 'early' England declarations. They will time back into matches, risking defeat if they have to. Against Ireland we saw their first-innings score way out of line with an early declaration. If our staid old ways are saying 'they haven't got enough yet' Stokes will reckon otherwise.

*Don't miss Ed Hawkins's in-play advice after every day of every single Test on betting.betfair