England v Australia First Ashes Test In-play Tips: Aussies spooked by Bazball

• England end day one as favs

• England spin deficiency key

• Smith set for a big one

England v Australia
Saturday 17 June, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Australia innings runs line

As expected England unleashed Bazball on a first day at Edgbaston which saw the game and ebb and flow in thrilling fashion. It has set the tone perfectly for a ding-dong series.

England closed as favourites to take a 1-0 lead at 2.447/5. Australia are 2.6413/8 and the draw is 5.04/1. That could come down sharply on day two with the Aussies expected to score at a slower rate.

Australia's negativity and England's gung-ho nature nature were strong themes. The former was surprising, the latter was not.

The tourists were spooked early on, going into full-on panic mode by having sweepers out both sides of the wicket after just three overs. Was this the best they could come up with?

Trying to stop boundaries makes sense, of course, but to do so early felt like England are already inside Australia's head. The hosts don't care how the runs are scored and they picked off ones and twos to maintain their run rate.

And, as usual, punters have to be on point with this attacking England team. The early declaration was obvious but the runs market was not alert. It was unders 420 when Ben Stokes called time on 393 for nine.

It was canny from Stokes, denying Australia the opportunity to bowl England out. And it rather disguised the fact that from ball one the wicket looked like a 450-plus track.

England's swagger may be bit misplaced when you consider the performance by Nathan Lyon. Lyon picked up four and looked dangerous getting decent turn and a bit of bite from the footholds.

Lyon was identified and the one true point of difference between the attack and although England's spin cupboard is bare, it is hard to see Moeen Ali doing the same sort of damage.

In the third innings on an even dryer surface, Lyon could be lethal. He is a perfect antidote to Bazball with the clever changes of flight as seen by the stumpings which did fror Jonny Bairstow and Moeen Ali.

That is for later. In Australia's innings they could find they are a couple of weapons short. Without a high-quality spinner England are in danger of being exposed. And they may also regret not having Mark Wood's pace and bounce on a wicket which looks superb for batting. How can England mix it up with the attack they have chosen?

Australia's innings runs, therefore, look cheap at overs at 392.5. There's nothing alarming in the second-innings scores in the last five years. It looks a buy.

Top bowler wins/matches under Ben Stokes captaincy
Robinson 2/7
Broad 2 t/10
Anderson 2 t/11
Stokes 1 t/14

First-innings fifty/century

This looks a terrific batting wicket. So good, in fact, that it may be wise to switch from picking an individual to top score to the fifties and century market. A really monster score may be required.

Steve Smith, obviously, is the major candidate. We have already advised taking the 6/52.20 about a first-innings tons and it's hard not be happy with that. Smith is now 5/42.25 and 4/15.00 for a century.

Travis Head, in terrific nick in the WTC Final, looks a wager at both 7/42.75 and 13/27.50 respectively for a fifty and ton.

We expressed concerns about Usman Khawaja's lack of foot movement in England but that really shouldn't be an issue here. Khawaja has dominated the top-bat market (he is massive win-rate value at 10/3) but is 13/82.63 and 13/27.50 for a fifty and ton. He did look leaden-footed early on but was moving a bit better by the close.

Top Australia bat wins/matches last two years
Khawaja 8/17
Head 5/18
Labuschagne 3/20
Green 1/17
Warner 1/18
Smith 1/20
Carey 0/20