England v Australia First Ashes Test Day Four In-play Tips: Ultimate test for Bazball

• All three results to trade odds-on

• Root value for top bat

• Poor forecast for day five

England v Australia
Monday 19 June, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Top England second-innings bat

There's plenty of time to go in this first Test after rain prevented Australia from a late-night dash at England's top order. Time can be made up on the two remaining days with play able to go on until 19.00 on day four.

The match odds market still expects a result. The draw is the outsider of the three at 4.707/2 with Australia marginal favourites at 2.3811/8. England are 2.608/5.

When play resumes on day four (the forecast is good), the pressure is on England. At 28 for two, leading by just 35, there are two litmus tests for their aggressive way of playing. First, f they can take it to the Aussies here, then they make a statement which could have a significant impact on the series.

A rollicking, frolicking of rungetting in the Bazball style will surely spook Australia again. Whether they can pull it off in conditions which, at the start at least, favour the bowlers remains to be seen.

Circumspection is key. And in Ollie Pope and Joe Root they have their best two technicians to repel a pumped-up Australia. On a wicket which has few demons, they can set up a platform for the likes of Harry Brook, Jonny Bairstow and Ben Stokes to do some damage once the new ball has gone soft.

Root remains as big as 23/103.30 with Sportsbook for top runscorer and that looks a wager with Zak Crawley and Ben Duckett dismissed cheaply. As discussed yesterday, Root is Mr Reliable in the second dig. His runs are available to go long at 34.5 at [10/11].

Top England 2nd innings wins/matches under Stokes captaincy
Root 5/12
Bairstow 2/6
Brook 2/6
Crawley 2/14
Duckett 1/7
Stokes 0/13
Pope 0/13

Lay England second-innings runs

If England are able to launch an assault, what they do with it will also be hugely important. This is the second test.

England know full well that the wicket is slow and although it is far from the road which saw them chase 388 against India last year, their bowling attack has looked pedestrian at times. And they are likely to be minus their spinner.
Moeen Ali's lack of cricket has come back to hurt him with a huge blister on his spinning finger. He may not even be able to bowl.

With the forecast for day five average (a 40% of chance throughout), England's desire for result cricket will be sorely tested. They could be utterly gung-ho and try to blast 300 before another declaration to give them half an hour at the Aussies.

Laying England runs at 325 or more at around the 2.6533/20 mark could be sensible. It keeps on side an England attack, their intent to move the game forward and, of course, a collapse. It also keeps on side third-innings scores in the last tne years at Edgbaston which read: 245/122/487-7d/180/137/445-6d/265.

For a two-day betting forecast, well, chaos could ensue. All three results should trade odds-on. And with the stalemate the biggest price of the three it is wise to back-to-lay for a decent swing.