England v Australia 4th Ashes Test Tips: Draw price to collapse

• Draw price to come in from 4.507/2

• Weather forecast for days 4 & 5 poor

• England slight favourites

England v Australia
Wednesday 19 July, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England 4th Ashes Test team news

England have already named their XI. The benefit of this is unbeknown to the resty of us. It would be quite simple to keep in-house if the reason is to allow players to mentally prepare.

It's a bit of a hotch-potch XI to be frank. Had we known before the start of the series they were lining up with Moeen Ali at No 3, Ben Stokes unable to bowl, no Ollie Pope or Jack Leach and James Anderson badly in need of some wickets, their challenge would have been dismissed.

But they're solving problems. Mark Wood and Chris Woakes have bolstered the bowling and Zak Crawley and Ben Duckett have found ways to be competitive.

At Leeds it felt like they got over the line through sheer will of personality. They've got guts and no little gumption. Can they go to the well again though?

Named XI: Crawley, Duckett, Moeen, Root, Brook, Stokes, Bairstow, Woakes, Wood, Broad, Anderson

Australia 4th Ashes Test team news

Maybe Australia aren't solving problems. Maybe they don't think they need to. Time will tell whether they are right to remain calm or they will be accused of being too rigid in their thinking.

David Warner and Marnus Labuschagne are short of runs and certainly the former should probably be dropped. Pat Cummins doesn't trust spinner Todd Murphy so Cameron Green plays instead.

The one change they were expected to make was Josh Hazlewood returning for the ineffective Scott Boland. That has been confirmed. Mitch Marsh retains his spot after a sensational show in game three.

Named XI: Warner, Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Marsh, Green, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood

Tea with... Ian Bell

Betfair ambassador @Ian_Bell and @cricketbetting sat down to talk all things #Ashes ahead of the fourth Test! pic.twitter.com/j0sjuofzsW

-- Betfair (@Betfair) July 18, 2023

Old Trafford 4th Ashes Test pitch report

The Old Trafford surface, from the early pictures seen, doesn't have much green on it. It could well be the solid batting track that has seen big runs domestically this term. There have been big runs in Tests, too. South Africa's 151 in the first dig last year was an aberration. Five of the previoius six saw 350 or more notched.

If the skies were clear we would be expecting to get long of par lines in that mid 370 region. But, as we know, they're not and the weather forecast changes everything.

Old Trafford 4th Ashes Test weather forecast

It's grim up north, they say, and Manchester hasn't disappointed the cliche. The forecast is poor. Days four and five are threatening to be washouts at present. There is never fewer than a 51% and 70% chance of rain respectively. Otherwise we should have delayed starts and potential late finishes on the first three days.

England v Australia 4th Ashes Test match odds

The weather will dictate the match odds. Prices of 2.466/4 England and 2.6413/8 Australia seem irrelvant at the moment because we expect a significant cut to that draw price of 4.507/2.

The first plan is to get that price backed because we would be very surprised if it didn't trade odds-on. Either a road-like Old Trafford wicket or rain is in our favour in that regard.

England, of course, have to win. And in their desperation to do so expect them to try every trick in the book to try to force a result. An early declaration looks guaranteed if they're in the position to do so.

Rest assured you can keep up-to-date with the best angle for that with our in-play service @BetfairExchange and end-of-day guidance here on Betting.Betfait.com

With both sides well-matched it would be no surprise to see both trade odds-on. The weather could well bring bowlers to the fore and we're aware of the possibility of two innings being completed by the end of day two.

If we had to pick between the two, let's just say we're surprised Australia are as big. Still, what we can only be confident about at the moment is the collapse in the draw price.

England v Australia 4th Ashes Test player bets

Steve Smith, double centurion in 2019 at this ground, will be all the rage for runs in first-innings. Sportsbook go 13/53.60 he wins the market. For England, both Joe Root and Ben Stokes have excellent first-innings records at the venue. They are 13/53.60 and a boosted 7/18.00 respectively.

With the ball Stuart Broad has outbowled James Anderson despite this being the Lancastrian's home ground. Broad is 3/14.00 for top England bowler in first-innings with Anderson 10/3. Wood is the 5/23.50 fav. Pat Cummins is the same price for the Aussies.

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