South Africa v Pakistan First ODI Tips: Pakistan need the flip to go their way

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South Africa v Pakistan
Tuesday 17 December, 12:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa v Pakistan Second T20 team news

South Africa have named a strong squad with big-gun players returning. Kagiso Rabada, David Miller, Keshav Maharaj and Heinrich Klaasen are all name checked after sitting out the previous ODI assignment.

Indeed, injuries permitting (Anrich Nortje, Wiaan Mulder and Gerald Coetzee for example) it is their strongest and there is only one uncapped player, the pace tyro Kwena Maphaka.

Temba Bavuma leads and should open with Tony de Zorzi. A return to runs in white ball for Aiden Markram is required, Tristan Stubbs is dangerous in the middle order and Marco Jansen offers key balance.

Possible SA XI: De Zorzi, Bavuma, Markram, Stubbs, Klaasen, Miller, Jansen, Phehlukwayo, Rabada, Maphaka, Shamsi

Pakistan have bolstered their options after a 2-0 reverse in the T20 series. They have added opener Abdullah Shafique, all-rounder Kamran Ghulam and pacer Naseem Shah. We would expect alll three to get a game. Abbas Afridi and Jahandad Khan are out.

Salman Agha was not used in the T20s, which looked like a mistake as they were utilising only five bowlers. Surely they don't make the same mistake? Abrar Ahmed is the senior spinner with Sufian Muqeem unlikely to be thrown straight in.

Probable Pakistan XI: Ayub, Shafique, Babar, Rizwan, Ghulam, Salman, Irfan, Afridi, Rauf, Naseem, Abrar

South Africa v Pakistan First ODI pitch report

There have been only eight day-night matches at Boland park and five have been won by the team batting first. It's not a big enough study sample to start planning a huge toss bet but it is not a surprising stat. There's a 56% bias in all ODI there. In terms of runs the RPO in the last five years (all matches) is 5.5. run-making has been remarkably consistent: the last four first-innings scores red: 296-287-296-291. So 290 is the target, then, with all scores which breached that number defended. We would have more faith in the home batting putting on a reliable show and the opportunity to bet that they bust a par line in the early 290s could be a decent option. No rain is forecast but there does appear to be cloudy overheads for the first-innings which could help the bowlers to get movement through the air.

South Africa v Pakistan First ODI match prediction

South Africa are 1.654/6 with Pakistan 2.3411/8. Those are the type of match odds one would expect. And it it's a familiar conundrum for potential Pakistan punters.

We will almost always only play them if they are odds-against with the security blanket of a leveller. That might be weather, a dodgy pitch or a hefty toss bias. We don't have the latter on this occasion because of the study sample but a case could be made for them to defend.

Still, we have seen them have everything in their favour in the T20 series as they failed to defend 200-plus with a huge bias in their pocket in Centurion. It could be that a more simple back-to-lay batting first is the way to go. Add 25% to the original stake with 1.804/5 the get out.

Pakistan did manage a series win in their last visit in 2021. In a ding-dong affair they got home 2-1 with a successful chase in Centurion and then a defend. they could feel right at home in the format but it is not a lazy cliche to admit that we just don't know what we're going to get from them.

South Africa v Pakistan First ODI player bets

Haris Rauf was our go-to pick in the T20s for top bowler but the 3/14.00 by Sportsbook for top bowler is bang on two-year win rates. Babar Azam looked like a man with the touch to notch something decent with the bat but the 5/23.50 for top bat could be boosted so keep an eye out. Babar hit 228 runs in three for an average of 76 in that 2021 success but is not close on win rate value. De Zorzi and Stubbs have been the standouts for the hosts in the last 12 months in terms of run-making and the 4/15.00 and 5/16.00 top-bat prices are fair picks. Salman, if he plays, is probably overpriced on ability for the visitors to top score at 8s with Sportsbook. There is a feeling that middle-order players protected from the new ball is the way to play in South Africa. Money back if a non-runner.

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