South Africa v India First Test Tips: Saffers the bet with toss on their side

• South Africa value batting first

• Centurion pitch and weather help bowlers

• Kohli leaves India squad but should be back

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South Africa v India
Tuesday 26 December, 08.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

South Africa v India First Test team news

Dean Elgar has announced he will retire at the end of the series. So South Africa will soon be on the hunt for another opener, just after they'd unearthed a possible gem in Tony de Zorzi. De Zorzi, who impressed in the ODI, will soon be senior man.

Marco Jansen, Gerald Coetzee and Kagiso Rabada, all who enjoyed periods of rest, return. With Wiaan Mulder used as an all-rounder, too, it gives them possible depth with the bat.

Probable XI: De Zorzi, Elgar, Petersen, Bavuma, Markam, Verreyne, Jansen, Mulder, Mahraj, Coetzee, Rabada

Virat Kohli returned to India for personal reasons but is expected to be back in time for the start of the Test.

Ruturaj Gaikwad is out of the tour with a finger injury but wasn't expected to play. Abhimanyu Easwaran, who has been on the A tour of South Africa, is called up.

Yas Jasiwal should continue to open with Rohit Sharma after a big ton against West Indies last time. Remember that although Ravi Ashwin is available India often prefer Shardul Thakur on the road.

Probable XI: Rohit, Jaiswal, Gill, Kohli, Shreyas, Rahul, Jadeja, Thakur, Bumrah Siraj, Prasidh

South Africa v India Second Test pitch report

In the last ten Tests at Centurion eight have been won by the side batting first. That's a difficult stat to ignore. There have been no draws.

Of those ten first-innings, only four were of 350 or more. There are some low scores historically and clear evidence that the pitch deteriorates. The second innings average (discounting the 621 scored by the hosts against a hopeless Sri Lanka) is 231. Four of the last six fourth-innings have come in under 200 all out.

Forecast showers and gloom for the first two days do not add to the feel that we have a runfest incoming. We await runs markets but for a kick-off no century in the match has some appeal at 4/15.00.

South Africa v India First Test match odds

South Africa are 3.505/2, India 2.608/5 and the draw 2.97197/100. We have a clear strategy for this one.

First up, South Africa rate value in conditions in which, obviously, they are best suited. Keep that toss bias on side and we should at least expect short favourite status at some stage.

India's red-ball preparation has been non-existent and disrupted. An intra-squad match is far from ideal and they're coming in cold into seaming and swinging conditions. Think the last two WTC Finals.

Secondly, the draw is going to be a lay option. We'll look to play at around the 2.407/5 mark with a combination of first-innings showers and a partnership.

India won at Centurion in 2021-22 but this could be a tougher start this time. Anything around 180-190 in the fourth will be very tricky.

South Africa v India First Test player bets

KL Rahul got a ton in that game and had a solid series. He may consider himself well-prepared after the white-ball leg. He has two wins on top first-innings bat for India in the last seven. Sportsbook's 11/26.50 has appeal.

Kohli has four wins in 14 and he is a win rate bet with 0.8 percentage points in our favour at Sportsbook's 13/53.60. But we are worried about that trip home.

For South Africa there is a dearth of value but Jansen at 16/117.00 (two wins in 11) and Keshav Maharaj (two wins in 13) at 66/167.00 keep that bowler-friendly surface onside.

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