England's T20 series against South Africa starts in Cape Town on Friday so Ed Hawkins crunches the numbers to find the value on the side markets for game one...
"Ngidi takes a wicket every 14.1 and 10.7 balls respectively while Rabada's numbers are 17.6 and 15.6. Ngidi averages 1.8 wickets per game for South Africa, Rabada 1.25"
>South Africa v England
Friday November 27 16.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Kagiso Rabada is South Africa's attack leader. He was the Purple cap winner in the IPL. He is the man who gets the headlines and the big sponsorship deals. But is he priced on reputation rather than record for top South Africa wicket-taker? Probably.
We do not discount Rabada as a brilliant bowler. He's just not as potent as he is made out to be in this format. Sportsbook make him 11/5 to win, a 31% chance. Despite IPL form, he has only one win in his last eight for South Africa in this format. It is a stiff ask therefore to side with him.
Particularly as his pace bowling partner, Lungi Ngidi, is more dangerous. Ngidi has four wins in ten (and three ties) meaning he returns 70% of the time. Study samples are short but if we look at their careers domestically and internationally, Ngidi comes out on top.
The 24-year-old takes a wicket every 14.1 and 10.7 balls respectively while Rabada's numbers are 17.6 and 15.6. Ngidi averages 1.8 wickets per game for South Africa, Rabada 1.25.
When you consider those numbers it is a puzzle as to why Ngidi is not favourite. So strap on your betting boots and jump in for Sportsbook's 7/2.
One favourite who does fit the bill is Quinton de Kock, who goes off at 13/5 for top South African bat after being price boosted from 9/4. The 13/5 represents 27.8% probability. Two-year form has De Kock winning at a rate of 38.4%. He has a career win rate of 27.2%.
His greatest rival to honours is probably Heinrich Klaasen. We rate Klaasen as having the potential to lift South Africa out of the doldrums in the next few years with his brutal hitting. England have already been on the receiving end of his blade when he smashed 66 from 43 in February. This series is his chance to make the number four slot his own. Klaasen strikes at 154 in his 11 international appearances so far and is far better than the 8/1 offered by Sportsbook.
SA last two years top bowler wins/matches
Phehlukwayo 3 2t/18
Rabada 1 2t/8
Ngidi 4 3t/10
SA last two years top bat wins/matches
De Kock 5/13
Du Plessis 3/8
R Hendricks 2/14
Van Der Dussen 2/15
Stay with Malan
Unless you've been living under a rock this year - plausible considering the world situation - you might have heard that we are keen on Dawid Malan as a top runscorer bet for England in this format.
As you can see from the numbers below, Malan has an extraordinary record. And although we don't expect him to continue winning at a rate of just shy of 41%, he only needs to win at a rate out of line with his odds. Sportsbook go 4/1, meaning they think he has a 20% chance of success.
Malan's record is so good that it is ls likely his odds will take a while to catch up with him. He was named as one of two bets of the Week on Cricket...Only Bettor with the description "the odds are hopelessly wrong." Jos Buttler, of course, is a significant threat. And we never side with one player over another on the basis that the former is poor quality. Clearly Butteer is one of the best in the world.
For some the 13/5 on offer by Sportsbook is value. But we will stick with the huge edge on Malan finding form in the number three berth.
England top bat wins/matches
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