South Africa v Australia Third ODI Tips: Carey a 17/1 top-bat pick

• South Africa 2.3811/8 in must-win game

• Carey has potential

• Potchefstroom pitch tricky to call

South Africa v Australia
Tuesday 12 September, 12:00
TV: Live on TNTSports

South Africa v Australia Third ODI team news

South Africa are at least managing expectations ahead of the World Cup. Two defeats to Australia's second string ensures they will travel to India without the burden of a nation demanding success.

Their balance is an issue regardless in truth. Aiden Markram is their sixth bowling option even though they played two all-rounders in Marco Jansen and Andile Phehlukwayo, who isn't in the World Cup squad, last time.

If Sisanda Magala is fit he may come in for the latter. If not, it may be time to pair Tabraiz Shamsi and Keshav Maharaj.

Possible XI: De Kock, Bavuma, van der Dussen, Markram, Klaasen, Miler, Jansen, Maharaj, Rabada, Nortje, Shamsi

Australia have added Michael Neser to their squad with Spencer Johnson struggling with a hamstring injury. Cameron Green remains a doubt following concussion.

But no matter. The Australia depth has proved frightening for the opposition. A century for Marnus Labuschagne after his match-winning knock in game one may even force the Aussies to rethink their World Cup squad. Marcus Stoinis will be nervous considering he's out of the side.

Remember that Steve Smith, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Glenn Maxwell are likely to be locks and are unavailable.

Probable XI: Warner, Head, March, Labuschagne, Inglis, David, Carey, Hardie, Abbott, Ellis

South Africa v Australia Third ODI pitch report

There have been only three internationals played at Potchefstroom in eight years. The last two were in 2020 and 2022. Australia failed to defend 254 in the former and West Indies likewise with 260 in the latter.

In the four domestic one-day matches played at the venue most recently, three were won by the side batting first. A trend which is reflected in the five day-night games internationally. As for runs, 284 was the highest score domestically. Since 2010 all international first-innings have been 268 or fewer. It could be a runs short for cheap numbers at 270 but we need to have a closer look early doors.

South Africa v Australia Third ODI match odds

South Africa are 2.3811/8 with Australia 1.715/7. Punters are probably sick of the sight of the Proteas as they had screamed value at full-strength versus an Australia team shorn of its spine.

Their disappointing efforts were highlighted by the monster score Australia rattled up in Blomefontein when a game earlier South Africa had struggled to post 269.

Despite the likes of heinrich Klaasen saying the hosts need more intensity and that they are 'getting there' bettors would beg to differ. No rain is forecast.

South Africa v Australia Third ODI player bets

Tough love on the top-bats. We backed David Warner last game only for 106 to prove not big enough. Then Heinrich Klaasen dead-heated with David Miller. Our win-rate options, then, are dwindling. Rassie van der Dussen would be an otpion at 4/15.00 but 10/34.33 is too skinny. With South Africa's batting flaky Marco Jansen has some appeal at 25/126.00.

Labuschagne has been cut to 3/14.00 for top Aussie so we may look lower down the order. Alex Carey at 17/118.00 is a wrong price on win rate in the last two years but we do need this pitch to be dicey to get him in early. Carey can be added to the bet slip here.