Ireland v South Africa First ODI Tips: Irish eyes smiling in Abu Dhabi with four bets up to 5/1

Wednesday 2 October 12:30
TV: live on TNT Sports

Ireland v South Africa First ODI team news

The Irish will be pretty pleased with themselves after a creditable 1-1 draw in the T20 series. They have made some squad changes, though, notably Andy Balbirnie returning to the fold after being left out of the first leg of the tour. Fellow opening bat Stephen Doheny has also been added.

Josh Little, however, is not listed. Crag Young, who was perhaps rested from the final T20 with this contest in mind, is a more than capable operator as an attack leader. Ross Adair, who made a thrilling ton in their victory, is not in the squad at the moment.

The 22-year-old leggie Gavin Hoey could make a debut, although Ireland may reckon adding batting depth in the form of Neil Rock might be a smarter option.

Ireland probable XI: Balbirnie, Stirling, Campher, Tector, Tucker, Dockrell, M Adair, McBrine, Hume, Young, Rock/Hoey

South Africa are far from full-strength. Heinrich Klaasen, David Miller, Marco Jansen, Gerald Coetzee, Kagiso Rabada and Keshav Maharaj are all absent.

It is fair to say that the second string have disappointed. A 2-1 defeat by Aghanistan in a ODI series followed by stalemate against Ireland is not what the selectors had in mind.

Tristan Stubbs, for example, has been a letdown. This was supposed to be his chance to reaffirm his reputation as the coming man. But 31 runs against the Afghans and nine in defeat by Ireland are poor returns. Aiden Markram has been rested with Rassie van der Dussen back.

South Africa probable XI: Bavuma, De Zorzi, Rickleton, van der Dussen, Stubbs, Verreynne, Mulder, Phehlukwayo, Fortuin, Burger, Ngidi

Ireland v South Africa First ODI pitch report

There have been five ODI played at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium in the last five years. The highest first-innings score was Afghanistan's 287 against Ireland in 2021. The cumulative run rate for those games is down at 5.14. It wouldn't be smart to expect a run glut first up.

The first-innings market could be guilty of an old-fashioned bias in terms of overrating South Africa here. Just as it did against Afghanistan. Going under 300 or 310 at odds-on is a possibility.

Ireland v South Africa First ODI match prediction

South Africa are 1.331/3 with Ireland 4.03/1. That's mighty short about a South Africa side which has already struggled in the UAE this autumn, albeit against an Afghan team which is superior to the Irish.

Still, Ireland will know conditions better. Of the five games in the last five years Ireland played in each. They only won once but gave a good account of themselves in three games against Afghanistan.

It would be wrong to claim Ireland are as good as the Saffers. They may, however, boast better balance. South Africa are going to need Stubbs to step up as a sixth-bowling option if our predicted XI is right. Trading Ireland to even money status is not fantasy.

Ireland v South Africa First ODI player bets

Paul Stirling has an incredible three centuries in those five games mentioned at this venue. He will be popular at a boosted 10/34.33 for top Ireland bat as a result but do bear in mind his two-year win rate is down at 15%.

If you're all about the numbers then Curtis Campher is a rick at 5/16.00. He wins 26% of the time.

Temba Bavuma desreves more respect for top SA bat. He has five wins in 21 and is a likely opener. The 5/16.00 is a very good price about a high-quality performer. And with so many start men missing it could be said he has little to beat.

With the ball, Mark Adair is the right jolly at 3/14.00 for Ireland. Craig Young has a slightly better return rate than his 32% but Young has played only nine games to Adair's 22.

If Young is your man, his player performance (2p pts per wicket, 10 catch 1 per run) at overs 21.5 looks cheap. He has a career average of 38 points pe rgame.

Now read more cricket previews and get tips from our experts