Pakistan Super League Tips Matches 16 and 17: Big price top-bats the play in Lahore

• Lahore ground form in the bin

• Surface looks like one for bowlers

• Hossain clear performance value

• Lower-order top bats an option

Lahore Qalandars v Multan Sultans
Saturday 26 April, 16:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Lahore Qalandars v Multan Sultans PSLT20 tips

We don't know whether we're coming or going with this Gaddafi Stadium surface. The two matches played so far have been on absolute dung heaps with a scores of 142 all out, 137 for eight, 129 all out and 133 for three. Trends have been well and truly busted.

It is most discombobulating. To put that into context more than 200 in first-innings had been busted six times (three in the last three)  in the last 16 before this season and the run rate was at nine.

The blueprint for success  for night matches is also in the bin There was a whopping gap between the run rates for the side batting first and second, 9.39 versus 8.58. The toss bias for the defender holds firm over longer study periods at 69% for three  and over four it was 68%.

So what we have is a crash course in recency bias. Do we stick to a study sample over 18 games and say that batting is in fact going to hold sway over bowling with the defender struggling? Or do we look at what we have seen with our own eyes over two matches and say: what has gone before is irrelevant.

It could be that this next double header is played on a different strip. One which is good for batting. If we could be sure it was another minefield we would be shorting Sportsbook markets of Lahore runs at 181.5 at match fours at 31.5. 

Bet on what you know to be true, eh? Go figure. One thing we do know is that Rishad Hossain is a truly world-class all-rounder and his performance at 23.5 (1pt per run, 10 per catch, 20 per wicket) is an overs play at 23.5. Hossain has made-up at 13, 42, 62 and 61 this season and has a career T20 average of 30.

We also know that Chris Jordan batted at No 6 last time for Multan, very much has a win in him in franchise and on a potentially tricky surface may only need 30-odd. Sportsbook offer 33/134.00. 

Quetta Gladiators v Peshawar Zalmi
Sunday 27 April, 16:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Quetta Gladiators v Peshawar Zalmi PSLT20 tips

By the time this game rolls around we may be ready to start hitting some runs-related markets to play unders. It is likely that this game is played on the same surface as Lahore-Multan but we will keep an ear out for information.

Both teams have benefitted from the surface already. Quetta roared back to beat Kings somehow and Zalmi stuck it to Lahore in the opener at the venue. 

There are top-bat picks which catch the eye in case of further evidence that this a poor batting surface. Faheem Ashraf won against Kings lower down the order so a trio of players are on the list at 33s: Sean Abbott, Akeal Hosein and Mohammad Wasim.

For Zalmi, Babar Azam obviously dominates the market at 9/52.80. But we have been keen on Abdul Samad this year and Sportsbook offer 14/115.00. Samad has tremendous hitting power, striking at 143. He already has win in this market for Pakistan. At 27 he is a latecomer to PSL but in two innings he has 42 runs at 210. 

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