Ed Hawkins sides with two openers at decent prices in Sunday's evening game in the PSL from Abu DHabi...
Multan Sultans v Peshawar Zalmi
Sunday 13 June, 19:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Multan start well
With Quetta Gladiators out of the play-off picture, hopes of big-priced upset are with Multan Sultans. The vibes are good so far with Sultans scalping the holders, Karachi Kings, in their first outing since re-start.
Against the Kings, Sultans produced the sort of display which took them to the top of the league standing in the previous edition, only to be hurt by postponement and then falling away in rescheduled play-offs. With bat and ball they hunted as a pack.
Sohaib Maqsood, Rillee Rossouw and Kushdil Shah batted aggressively to propel them to 176. Then four out of five bowlers squeezed expertly with only Shahnawaz Dhani proving expensive. Going forward they may find a lack of a sixth-bowling option costly but they're playing a high-risk game now wins are essential.
Probable XI Gurbaz, Rizwan, Masood, S Maqsood, Rossouw, Hetmyer, Kushdil, Tanvir, Sohail, Imran, Dhani
Zalmi have three games left and with one more win allied with their strong net run rate they should progress to the play-offs. A game against Quetta turned up at exactly the right time for them after they were Rashid Khan-ed in their opener.
Rashid destroyed them with five wickets so with confidence low, Quetta were the perfect opposition. They swatted them aside. And that after they had a wobble at 10 for two. Kamran Akmal and David Miller produced big scores at the right time, although the latter's inconsistency may well have many reckoning that's him done for the tournament.
A target of 197 was never going to be in danger against the weakest batting opposition and Quetta got nowhere near, going down by 63 runs. Mohammad Irfan was the pick, taking three wickets. In all, Zalmi used seven bowlers. Irfan, Wahab Riaz and Mohammad Imran look gimmes for four overs a piece while Umain Asif should probably join them.
Possible XI Haider Ali, Kamran, Shoiab Malik, Miller, Powell, Rutherford, Allen, Wahab, Asif, Imran, Irfan
We are five games in to the PSL Part II in Abu Dhabi and it is safe to say that the bias for the chaser that we saw in Karachi has been busted. This is as you would expect. The first-innings scores (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second) read: 197-1/133-2/170-176-1/143-2. It is fair to say that a target of 170 or more is not unrealistic.
This is some way above historical records but we think dew is having a role to play with pacers and spinners struggling to get grip and control. Sportsbook could see some interest in the 5/6 that both teams score 160 or more. The 2/1 that both score 170 or more also has appeal.
We would have chalked up Zalmi as favourites for this one so are surprised to see an early exchange show making Sultans 1.9520/21. We rarely like to bet pre-toss or before we know who is in what XI but as a pure value call here and now, Zalmi probably fit the bill at 2.0621/20.
That lack of a sixth bowler for Multan could prove crucial with the ball slipping and sliding all over the shop. We don't claim that Zalmi are world-beaters here just that they are at least deserving of equal billing. And they don't have that.
Sportsbook have price-boosted Mohammad Rizwan to 12/5 for top Multan bat. It's a smidge out for us on our win-rate rule. Sportsbook give him 29.4% probability and we go 28.4%. Still, our win rate takes in the last three editions. If we were to filter since he switched to opener in all comps, he has nine wins in 19.
The 7/2 that he finishes as top match batsman may also appeal. In the last Sultans game we picked up a winners at 100/1 in-play with Kushdil Shah and he lpoks primed to go massive again with a starting price of 14s.
We're approaching last chance territory for Haider Ali for top Zalmi bat. Sportsbook go 7/2. It's an edge on win rate. And it's chancey considering he is opening.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l