Ed Hawkins finds two big prices to bet on for the PSL action from Abu Dhabi on Tuesday
"Shoaib Malik is underrated at 4/1 on three-edition win rate. Let's look for a couple of points bigger in-play"
Karachi Kings v Peshawar Zalmi
Tuesday 15 June 19.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Wayward with the ball
It's official. The holders are in danger of missing out on qualification with back-to-back defeats coming after the restart. Kings went down to Islamabad United late on Monday night to leave them level on points and games played with a resurgent Multan Sultans.
They have big problems. Against Multan they failed to chase with class act Babar Azam well set. And then against United they failed to defend a monster total. Despite posting 190 they were well beaten with United not requiring the last eight balls.
That profligacy is not surprising. Even when they were top before postponement, Karachi had been leaky in the field. On fairer surfaces they are now paying the price. Their selection is all wrong, too, with Martin Guptill a disaster in the No 3 slot.
Possible XI Sharjeel, Babar, Guptill, Zadran, Walton, Perera, Imad, Abbas, Waqas, Amir, Arshad
Zalmi to shuffle/h2>
Zalmi have also failed to impress. They have lost two out of three and their solitary win in Part II came against Quetta Gladiators, who remain the tournament whipping boys.
They appear to have greater issues with the ball. Multan had a chase of 167 sewn up by the 17th over and a Lahore batting unit which is not renowned for blasting got stuck in to post 170. This is a departure for Zalmi who were consistently mean with the ball before Covid struck.
It's tough to pin it on one player but skipper Wahab Riaz is overbowling Fabian Allen, who has been pricey, and underbowling Shoaib Malik. It was criminal the latter didn't bowl against Multan. They used only five bowlers and they need to make smarter calls.
It could be the time for Fidel Edwards to get a game. But they might want to reshuffle the batting first with Haider Ali in danger of losing his spot to imam-ul-Haq.
Possible XI Kamran, Haider, Shoaib Malik, Miller, Powell, Rutherford, Allen, Wahab, Asif, Imran, Irfan
Karach's failure to defend 190 gives credence to a potential bias emerging for the chaser in the late matches. Dew looks like being a big factor as the tournament goes on with the team fielding second under pressure from the scoreboard and a wet ball. The first-innings scores so far at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second) read: 190-2/166-2/197-1/133-2/170-1/176-1/143-2. Kings could well go big again with the bat while Zalmi will be licking their lips at the prospect of a chunky total. More than 170 could be a play on the innings runs. Sportsbook go 5/6 that both teams score 160 or more.
Toss key with dew around
Kings are 1.794/5 with Zalmi 2.186/5. That's a stinker of a price about Kings, who are one-trick ponies.
Still, it might be wise to wait for the toss. Zalmi in a chase is the way to go, although we could well be looking at something in the region of 2.407/5 at the break. We'd be happy to be betting them going after a score of 180. Thisara Perera as bowler No 6 is a significant weakness for Kings.
However, if Kings were to bowl first and their bowlers produced their normal wild performance we 'd bet them to get 190 or possibly 200 given the class of Babar.
Shoaib and Waq attack is on
Babar is going shot for shot with Sultans' Mohammad Rizwan for top PSL bat. There are plenty of betting options for this one. He is boosted to 9/5 for top Kings bat by Sportsbook, 13/5 for top match bat and 10/11 to bust 32.5 - a mark he's gone past 10 times in 17 this year.
We're swerving Haider for top Zalmi bat as he's been cut to 3/1 from 7/2. Shoaib Malik is underrated at 4/1 on three-edition win rate. Let's look for a couple of points bigger in-play. Eyebrows remains raised that Kings' Waqas Maqsood has not been cut from 4/1 to top bowl. It's a rick, simple as that.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l