Pakistan v Sri Lanka Asia Cup Tips: Depleted Pakistan vulnerable

• Sri Lanka clear value batting first

• Babar Azam a solid bet

• Weather forecast poor again

Pakistan v Sri Lanka
Thursday 14 September, 10:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Pakistan v Sri Lanka team news

Pakistan are licking their wounds after a hammering by India. They have also suffered injuries to Haris Rauf and Naseem Shah, which jeopardises their World Cup Preparation. Usama Mir, the leggie, is a probable replacement for one of them while Mohammad Wasim, the bowling all-rounder, looks certain to play.

Probable XI: Fakhar, Imam, Babar, Rizwan, Salman, Iftikhar, Shadab, Faheem Wasim, Usama, Afridi

Sri Lanka will also be disappointed by their performance against India. The game was in their pocket at the break after they bowled out their rivals for just 213. But their flaky batting was exposed again, being bowled out in turn for 172. Not even close in the end.

Probable XI: Nissanka, Karunaratne, Kusal, Samarawickarama, Asalanka, Dhananjaya, Shanaka, Wellalage, Theekshana, Rajitha, Pathirana

Pakistan v Sri Lanka pitch report

The RPS in Colombo looked like a raging-turner in that India-Lanka clash. Fifteen of the 20 wickets fell to spin. It could therefore be an unders play on the innings runs and we're looking to get against the Sri Lanka batting. If we can lay 2.001/1 or 2.1011/10 at around the 260 mark we'll play. Against the premium teams Sri Lanka have made more than 220 batting first once in six attempts in the last two years.

Pakistan v Sri Lanka match odds

Pakistan are 1.574/7 with Sri Lanka 2.77177/100. Considering there are plenty of variables in play for this game that's a bad price about a depleted Pakistan.

The most important may be the toss. More than 65% have now won batting first at the RPS. Throw in a turning wicket that could be a leveller and Lanka have appeal.

It's pretty basic betting skills to get with Sri Lanka if the toss goes their way. A poor weather forecast is also a factor which could reduce the gulf.

Pakistan v Sri Lanka player bets

We're caught between stools with top-bat markets. If there's rain and reduced overs the top order has huge appeal. But on a dicey track a late-order cameo could win it. That's what happened in the last game with Rohit Sharma and No 8 Dunith Wellalage winning.

Babar Azam may fit criteria for the former at 13/53.60. That is a price which gives un an edge on win rate versus implied probability. For the latter, Pakistan's Aghan Salman at 11/112.00 and all-rounder Faheem Ashraf at 50/151.00 have appeal. Sri Lanka's Dasun Shanaka may be a price at 10/111.00 on similar rationale.

With the pitch likely to take spin, Shadab Khan for top Pakistan wicket-taker at 10/34.33 sticks out.