Sri Lanka v New Zealand Second ODI Tips: Don't rule out Kiwis in the chase

Sri Lanka v New Zealand
Sunday 17 November 09.00
TV: live on TNT Sports

Sri Lanka v New Zealand Second ODI team news

Sri Lanka are 1-0 up after a stroll in game one. They whacked 324 and in a rain-affected game restricted New Zealand to 175 for nine.

Avishka Fernando and Kusal Mendis both recorded centuries. But it was notable that they managed to use seven different bowlers. Four of them were spinners.

It is a huge advantage to be able to deploy that number. On a potentially spinning surface that's 40 overs of tweak. We don't expect any changes from the previous XI.

Possible Sri Lanka XI: Nissanka, Avishka, Kusal Mendis, Asalanka, Kamindu, Samarawickrama, Liyanage, Hasaranga, Theekshana, Asitha, Madushanka

By contrast the Kiwis spinners struggled. Ish Sodhi, Mitch Santner and Glenn Phillips found it hard to contain the home batters and that will be a major worry. Across all formats recently (apart from Test series defeat in Sri Lanka) their spinners have levelled matters.

New Zealand handed debuts to keeper Mitch Hay and all-rounder Nathan Smith. They look certain to be afforded another opportunity and the four-day break between games should provide a chance to reset.

Possible New Zealand XI: Robinson, Young, Nicholls, Phillips, Chapman, Bracewell, Hay, Santner, Smith, Sodhi, Duffy

Sri Lanka v New Zealand Second ODI pitch report

The series has moved to Pallekele for a day-night contest. In all 37 day-night ODI that have produced a result there is a toss bias. Twenty-three of those games have been won by the team chasing. That's 62%. In the last three years there have been nine wins for the chaser from 17. Although that's a dip it does suggest we need to be aware that dew could be an issue for the defender. The RPO of 5.7 in that latter study period probably means a fair surface for batters and bowlers but there have been extreme highs and lows in terms of first-innings totals in full matches. Sri Lanka made 381 against Afghanistan earlier this year. West Indies were knocked over for 189 last month. There is strong evidence that the surface takes significant turn. The Kiwis could struggle to bust their par line in the late 260s, early 270s.

Sri Lanka v New Zealand Second ODI match prediction

Sri Lanka are 1.454/9 with New Zealand 3.1511/5. The question here is whether the surface and the toss bias can be a great leveller. In the last ODI played there between Sri Lanka and West Indies it was.

The game was rain-affected but West Indies managed a stiff chase of 195 in 23 overs. It was a dead rubber, however, and Sri Lanka intensity may have dropped.

The good news is that the Kiwis are unlikely to be panicked at being behind. They should be well-versed in conditions having been in Asia in one guise or another for weeks. We do need the spinner to step up, though. Having a gamble on them in the chase is not the stuff of fools. There is rain around again and that could also help reduce the gulf in a shortened game.

Sri Lanka v New Zealand Second ODI player bets

The potential for rain should impact player bets. That may include favouring batters towards the top of the order and, annoyingly, giving player performance markets a swerve. Spinners like Michael Bracewell at over 30.5 would have been an option. On the flip side a short might be an option. Mitchell Santner looks toppy at 40.5. He has a career mark of 37. Pathum Nissanka in the opening slot for Sri Lanka is a fair price at 3/14.00. For the Kiwis, we are on the meter with Glenn Phillips. He is massively overdue. It is hard to believe he has gone at the game and all we can do is recognise that the 9/25.50 is out of line with his two-year win rate.

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