Sri Lanka v New Zealand First ODI Tips: Bets at 20/1, 9/2 and 7/2

Sri Lanka v New Zealand
Wednesday 13 November 09.00
TV: live on TNT Sports

Sri Lanka v New Zealand First ODI team news

Sri Lanka beat West indies 2-1 in a ODI series last month. Pathum Nissanka returned to the opening slot at the end of that series, replacing Nishan Madushka and we would expect the former to keep his spot.

As was the case in the T20 series against West Indies and New Zealand, spin was key. Eleven of the 16 wickets to fall to bowlers were to spinners against the Windies so Wanindu Hasaranga and Maheesh Theekshana will be key. Indeed, there is the possibility of 40 overs of spin if required.

Matheesha Pathirana is not involved so pace leader duties are likely to go to Asitha Fernando, ably supported by Dilshan Madushanka.

Possible Sri Lanka XI: Nissanka, Avishka, Kusal Mendis, Asalanka, Kamindu, Samarawickrama, Liyanage, Hasaranga, Theekshana, Asitha, Madushanka

New Zealand are buoyant after their extraordinary comeback in the final T20 meant they drew the series. They were able to defend 108 thanks to a Lockie Ferguson hat-trick and three wickets in the final over from Glenn Phillips.

The ODI squad is the same as the T20 group although we expect Henry Nicholls to come into the XI to provide much-needed ballast. We would be concerned if the Kiwis tried to pick too many bits-and-pieces players. In Phillips and Michael Bracewell they have all-rounders who are more than capable. Ish Sodhi really should come in for Zac Foulkes.

Possible New Zealand XI: Robinson, Young, Foxcroft, Nicholls, Phillips, Chapman, Bracewell, Santner, Sodhi, Ferguson, Duffy

Sri Lanka v New Zealand First ODI pitch report

All six of Sri lanka and West Indies' white-ball matches went with the chase bias but in Dambulla there is no evidence under lights that the toss makes a huge difference. In 31 matches, 16 have been won by the chaser. what we do know is that runs are unlikely to flow. A run rate of 4.8 in those games suggests a total of more than 250 would be challening batting first. We would be keen to short New Zealand runs given that this is such an inexperienced and experimental line-up. Any par line in that late 250s or early 260s region is a short. If not, the innings runs market may give us the chance to go under 260 at 1.9110/11.

Sri Lanka v New Zealand ODI match prediction

Sri Lanka are 1.351/3 on an early show. That's very short about the hosts when it could be that conditions, due to a slow, turning pitch, may make for a leveller.

From the T20 series we saw that those types of wickets reduced the gulf between the teams. And backing the Kiwis throughout the three-game series at odds of around 2.809/5 may well pay off. What they lack in know-how at this level they make up for with sheer grit and determination. A trade on their price if they bat first may not be the worst idea if they can recognise that 230-250 is more than competitive.

Sri Lanka v New Zealand First ODI player bets

Our first port of call for the tops markets is Sri Lanka batter Janith Liyanage. We have been consistent followers on him for most SL runs because he has been underrated at prices at around 10s and 11s. But blanks mean that he has been pushed out to 20/121.00. He still has a win rate of 16.6% and the possibility of a tricky wicket should keep him interested.

With the ball, there is another home standout. Dilshan Madushanka has a win rate of 32% over 25 games and although Hasaranga is a major threat, the numbers suggest he should be followed at 7/24.50.

For the Kiwis Will Young has a 30% win rate over two years so Sportsbook's 7/24.50 is fine. However, given the knowledge of how rare back-to-back wins are in the format we will take a risk and revisit him in the series. Instead we go with Phillips who is now overdue a win across all formats. The win rate is again in our favour at 23% with Sportsbook offering 9/25.50.

Now read more Cricket tips and previews here